Conflicts and disruptions to global energy markets could push millions more people into hunger by driving up fuel, fertilizer, and food costs, the head of the Rome-based International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) warned. A new United Nations report indicates that global progress against hunger remains fragile.
IFAD President Alvaro Lario stated in an interview on July 10 that geopolitical tensions and potential disruptions to shipping and energy supplies could leave an additional 9 to 18 million people facing hunger if the shocks persist. "We are in a current era where we have the highest number of conflicts and are still increasing," Lario said. "Whenever there is a conflict, also hunger, displacement, refugees increase."
Conflict remains one of the biggest obstacles to reducing hunger worldwide, Lario added. Wars and geopolitical tensions can disrupt shipping, energy supplies, and agricultural inputs, increasing costs across food systems already strained by inflation. Hunger and conflict often reinforce one another, creating a difficult cycle to break without greater stability.
Higher energy prices are directly affecting fertilizers and agricultural production, Lario noted. The impact is particularly significant for small-scale farmers who rely on diesel fuel for irrigation, harvesting, and transporting goods. Rising fuel costs increase production expenses, contributing to higher food prices.
The new UN report identifies affordability as one of the world’s biggest food security challenges. While global food production continues to grow, approximately one-third of the global population cannot afford a healthy diet. In low-income countries, this figure rises to about 77%.
Climate change is also adding pressure to food systems and rural livelihoods. Lario pointed to floods, prolonged droughts, and extreme heat as increasingly common realities disrupting agriculture globally. He emphasized that governments should prioritize resilience and adaptation before disasters strike, rather than solely relying on emergency responses.
The IFAD is increasing investments in climate-adaptation programs to help rural communities withstand these extreme weather events. Lario argued that urgent support is needed for the millions of small farmers who produce a significant portion of the world's food.
The UN report highlights Africa as the region facing the most pressing food security challenges. For the first time, Africa has overtaken Asia as the continent with the largest number of hungry people. Nearly 60% of the world’s chronically undernourished people could reside in Africa by 2030. Lario attributed this shift partly to rapid population growth and slower economic gains compared to parts of Asia, calling for greater investment in agriculture, infrastructure, and food systems on the continent. African countries currently import nearly $100 billion worth of food annually, underscoring the need for stronger local production, storage, distribution, and regional trade networks.