UN Secretary-General Race Heats Up as António Guterres Nears End of Term

The race to succeed António Guterres as the next United Nations Secretary-General is underway as his nearly decade-long tenure concludes. Guterres recently delivered his final address to the U.N. General Assembly, calling for increased focus on climate change, a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine, de-escalation in the Middle East, and regulation of artificial intelligence. He vowed to continue championing the conviction that peace is possible and upholding the values of the U.N. Charter.

The incoming Secretary-General will face a world marked by an increasing number of global conflicts, rising fatalities, escalating climate impacts, growing alarm over AI development, and a U.N. funding crisis. Research indicates that last year saw the highest number of active global conflicts since World War II and the greatest number of fatalities since the Rwandan genocide.

Selection Process

The selection process began in November when the presidents of the U.N. General Assembly and Security Council invited member states to nominate candidates. The initiation letter noted that no woman has ever held the position and encouraged member states to consider nominating women.

Candidates submit applications including a personal statement detailing their vision for the role, a resume, and campaign finance disclosures. The General Assembly then holds "interactive dialogues" where candidates present their views and answer questions from member states. These televised hearings continue as new candidates are submitted.

Ultimately, the U.N. Security Council, comprising 15 members, recommends one individual to the General Assembly, which then appoints the Secretary-General. The Security Council utilizes "straw polls" to gauge support for candidates, where members vote "encourage," "discourage," or "no opinion expressed." A candidate must secure at least nine votes to proceed toward a formal recommendation.

Current Contenders

Nine candidates were initially nominated, but two have withdrawn, leaving seven individuals in contention. The current candidates include:

• Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett: Guyana's permanent representative to the U.N. since 2020, with prior experience as foreign minister and in senior roles at the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. Her vision emphasizes refocusing on core U.N. principles for a more agile and effective organization.
• Rebeca Grynspan: Former vice president of Costa Rica and current secretary-general of the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development. She aims to make the U.N. "more useful," "more agile," and "more accountable."
• Ivonne A-Baki: A Tongan diplomat with extensive experience as Ecuador's ambassador to the U.S., Qatar, and France. Her platform highlights her role in the 1998 Ecuador-Peru peace settlement, advocating for "renewal" of the institution.
• María Fernanda Espinosa: Former Foreign Minister and Defense Minister of Ecuador, and President of the 73rd U.N. General Assembly. Her vision comprises five pillars: peace and security, development, digital and energy transformation, closing the delivery gap, and rebuilding credibility.
• Rafael Mariano Grossi: Argentine diplomat and Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency. He advocates for a U.N. capable of responding to contemporary demands with impartiality and a results-oriented approach.
• Olara Otunnu: A former Ugandan permanent representative to the U.N., briefly served as foreign minister, and was a U.N. under-secretary-general. He stresses that "reform is no longer an optional choice. It is an imperative."
• Macky Sall: Former president of Senegal and chair of the African Union. He seeks to "restore trust in multilateralism" and asserts that peace, security, and development are intrinsically linked.

Race Dynamics

Daniel Forti, head of U.N. affairs at the International Crisis Group, described the race as entering a pivotal phase with just over three months remaining in Guterres's term. He noted that the Security Council has not shown overwhelming enthusiasm for any current contender, despite straw polls favoring Grynspan and Birkett. This lack of strong consensus could allow for late entries into the race.

Forti mentioned speculation surrounding potential candidacies from Nickolay Mladenov, former Bulgarian foreign minister and U.N. Middle East envoy; U.N. Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed; and former Mexican Foreign Minister Alicia Bárcena. However, Forti cautioned that latecomers face challenges in building support.

The support of the five permanent members of the Security Council—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the U.S.—is crucial, as they hold veto power. Regardless of who is chosen, Forti emphasized that the next Secretary-General will inherit a complex global landscape and face immense challenges.