Russia is experiencing an unprecedented fuel crisis, with long lines at gas stations and widespread frustration among motorists, as a sustained campaign of Ukrainian drone attacks has targeted the nation's oil refineries. The crisis, unprecedented for a country that is a major energy producer, has brought the realities of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine home to ordinary Russians.
President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that "problems persist for both motorists and businesses," and that "there are still queues at petrol stations, and finding the right grade of petrol isn’t always easy." He described the shortages as "not critical" and "temporary," but many Russians remain unconvinced.
An Associated Press count indicates over 50 reported attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil infrastructure since late March, with some facilities being hit multiple times. The refinery in Tuapse, for example, was struck four times in just over two weeks. As a consequence, Russia's crude oil processing in June fell 25% from the previous year to 3.95 million barrels per day, the lowest level in more than two decades, according to Energy Intelligence analyst Gary Peach. Gasoline production is down 17% year-over-year, significantly below domestic market needs.
Approximately one-third of Russia's oil refining capacity is offline, according to Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd. Consultancy. This situation arises at a critical time for the Russian economy, as the agriculture and harvest seasons are beginning, increasing demand for fuel.
Ukrainian officials state these strikes are intended to pressure Moscow by undermining its military logistics and supply lines, weakening its ability to conduct assaults along the front. Kyiv has specifically aimed to isolate Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014. Attacks earlier this year led to fuel rationing on the peninsula in May, with sales to civilians halted for a period.
By late June, some form of gasoline rationing was reported in over half of Russia's regions. Officials initially blamed hoarding and panic-buying, but restrictions have become more widespread. Exports of gasoline and aviation fuel have been curtailed, and authorities have considered banning diesel fuel exports as well. Importing fuel is also being explored, with the Kremlin stating that contacts with some countries are "underway."
The shortages have impacted distant regions even where no refineries have been hit. For instance, in the Omsk region, limits on gasoline sales of 40 liters per vehicle were announced, causing concern for businesses reliant on fuel. In the Siberian city of Irkutsk, portable toilets were brought in for those waiting in line at gas stations, and public transport fares increased due to rising fuel costs.
While Putin stated Russia's gasoline stockpiles are only 4% lower than last year, analyst Gary Peach noted that "reportedly, there are good supplies of fuel around the country. The problem is it’s in the wrong place." Reallocating these supplies across Russia's vast territory is a significant logistical challenge that could take several weeks.
Repairing the damaged refineries is complicated by the need for specialized equipment, often sourced from abroad, making repairs time-consuming and expensive due to sanctions. Some refineries may not be repaired until a ceasefire is in place, as they could be targeted again. The Moscow Oil Refinery, which supplies a substantial portion of the capital's fuel, is expected to take at least three months to repair. Analysts predict that fuel shortages could persist throughout the summer due to high agricultural demand and the ongoing repair efforts.