Ukraine Refinery Strikes Not Impacting US Gas Prices, ISW Report Finds
Analysis indicates that rising US diesel costs are tied to the conflict in Iran, not Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
Ukraine's targeted strikes on Russian oil refineries have not demonstrably impacted diesel prices in the United States, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Data presented by the ISW suggests that US diesel fuel prices remained consistently below $4 per gallon from August 2025 until shortly after a joint US-Israeli operation against Iran on February 28. This operation prompted Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global shipping route. The analysis indicates that even at the peak of Ukraine's strikes in November 2025, which targeted six Russian refineries over several days, US diesel prices saw a slight initial decrease.
US diesel prices began to climb significantly in February, coinciding with the escalation of the conflict in Iran. By September 21, prices reached a high of $6.53 per gallon, according to the data.
This analysis emerges amid reported tensions between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky regarding a US agreement to purchase over 2.25 million barrels of diesel from Russia, intended to counteract soaring fuel prices. President Trump had previously urged Ukraine to cease attacks on Russian oil refineries, attributing the rising fuel costs to these strikes.
President Zelensky, however, indicated that Ukraine would not halt its attacks on Russian energy targets, a strategy he has long defended as a means to deplete Moscow's war funding. He also raised concerns about the White House restricting Kyiv's access to the Starshield military satellite network.
According to reports, Ukrainian officials stated that a sudden cutoff of Starshield access, which they attributed to the White House, hampered their ability to deploy interceptor drones effectively against Russian attacks. This followed President Zelensky's reported agreement with President Trump to temporarily halt strikes on Russian refineries.
President Trump had publicly expressed his disapproval of Ukraine targeting Russian refineries, stating that such actions unnecessarily increase global oil prices and suggesting that Ukraine should focus on other targets. "There’s plenty of other targets," he reportedly told Newsmax.