Ukraine Fires Drones at Russia as Kyiv Prepares for Major Russian Aerial Assault

Russian air defenses intercepted nearly 900 Ukrainian drones overnight, striking targets across multiple regions of the country, the Crimean Peninsula, and the Sea of Azov, according to Moscow's Defense Ministry on Tuesday. Unconfirmed media reports indicated a major fuel depot in the Moscow region was ablaze, with two fatalities.

Ukraine has increasingly utilized domestically developed long-range drones and missiles to strike Russian territory since the full-scale invasion began over 4 ½ years ago, hitting targets as far east as the Urals and Siberia. This capability contrasts with Russia's extensive use of air superiority for routine aerial attacks on Ukrainian civilian areas.

Ukrainian officials are currently preparing for a large-scale aerial attack from Russia, which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned on Tuesday would be "massive." "Today, we received updated intelligence on Russia’s preparations for a massive strike. We are preparing countermeasures," Zelenskyy stated on social media. "We set deadlines for a significant part of the tasks, and the highest-priority ones are already being implemented."

Last week, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha noted that Kyiv estimates Russia possesses approximately 600 ballistic missiles in reserve and has the capacity to produce up to 140 per month. The effectiveness of Ukraine's defense against these weapons is hampered by a shortage of ammunition for its U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported that 650 drones were directed toward the Moscow region between Monday evening and Tuesday morning, with most intercepted far from the city. He added that 105 were downed as they approached Moscow, and an additional 68 were intercepted during daylight hours on Tuesday.

Ukraine has consistently targeted Russian oil refineries and storage facilities. Last weekend, Kyiv claimed to have disabled 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity, a figure that could not be independently verified. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated last week that these attacks have cost Russia approximately 1% of its gross domestic product. Russia, historically a major global producer of refined fuel products, has banned diesel exports in response to the Ukrainian strikes, contributing to rising global prices.

In a separate development, after targeting bridges in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv for several days, Russia attacked a bridge over the Dnipro River in the southern city of Zaporizhzhia, according to Mykhailo Semikin, the regional military administration chief. Traffic across the bridge was temporarily suspended. A nighttime Russian strike on a residential building in Zaporizhzhia injured five people, and a daylight attack on a warehouse in the city resulted in a large fire, Semikin also reported.

Russian forces are also aiming to disrupt shipping in Ukrainian ports along the Black Sea, impacting Kyiv's grain export revenues. The Russian Defense Ministry announced that its forces conducted overnight drone strikes on targets in Ukraine's southern Odesa region. An ammunition depot, a bulk carrier in the Chornomorsk port carrying dual-use goods, and port infrastructure in Izmail were reportedly hit.

Additionally, a Russian drone strike hit a cargo ship flying the flag of the Marshall Islands in the Black Sea, resulting in one fatality and seven injuries, according to Odesa regional governor Oleh Kiper. The vessel was reportedly transporting rapeseed oil.

Meanwhile, regarding Lithuania's proposal to host a U.S. military base and its parliamentary consideration of allowing the deployment of nuclear weapons, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that such moves would escalate tensions. "If military infrastructure belonging to a key NATO member moves closer to our borders, then naturally, this can only be perceived as a step toward escalating tensions, just like the deployment of nuclear weapons on the territory of a neighboring state," Peskov said. U.S. President Donald Trump had previously indicated he would consider establishing a permanent U.S. military base in Lithuania.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned last month that Moscow is planning hybrid strikes using drones or rockets against European countries that support Ukraine, including Poland and Lithuania.