Russians experienced a summer marked by significant disruption and anxiety due to an intensified campaign of Ukrainian drone attacks that struck targets across the country, impacting fuel supplies, air travel, and e-commerce.
Throughout June, July, and August, Russian air defense forces intercepted over 43,300 Ukrainian drones, according to data compiled by The Associated Press from the Defense Ministry. This figure represents a substantial increase from the approximately 7,700 interceptions recorded during the same period the previous year. While many drones were intercepted, a number clearly reached their targets, causing damage to oil refineries, warehouses of major retailers like Wildberries and Ozon, and leading to airport closures.
These attacks brought the realities of the conflict, which Russian President Vladimir Putin initiated in Ukraine, closer to home for ordinary citizens. Long lines formed at gas stations as refineries were targeted, and flights to popular vacation destinations faced cancellations and delays. The disruption extended to online commerce, with warehouses being set ablaze.
"We were living a normal life, and then suddenly it’s like this," retiree Margarita Terekhova described the ordeal of waiting in line to refuel her car in Moscow. The fuel crisis persisted into August.
The escalating drone campaign, characterized by its expanded geography and growing number of attacks, has shocked Russians and made the war a prominent topic of discussion, according to Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center, Russia's top independent pollster. Social media documented the disruptions, with images of fires at oil facilities and warehouses circulating online despite official restrictions.
Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have framed these strikes as "long-range sanctions" and indicated intentions to continue pressuring Russia to end the war. Zelenskyy has warned airlines of continued risks, stating that "the war started by Russia is closing its skies."
The increased awareness and inconvenience of the war come at a sensitive time for the Kremlin, with parliamentary elections scheduled for September 18-20. While the outcome of these tightly controlled elections is widely expected to favor the incumbent authorities, analysts suggest the period still holds potential for political volatility. Nikolay Petrov, senior research fellow at the NEST Centre, noted that elections are a time for reflection and that "things that are unexpected, inconvenient (and) painful for the authorities" can emerge even in a controlled environment.
Sociologists have observed a longer-term trend of worsening assessments of Russia's economic situation and declining approval ratings for top politicians. President Putin's approval rating, historically high, has seen a slight decrease, falling to 76% in August from 87% in September of the previous year, according to Levada Center data.
Concerns about a potential new troop mobilization, similar to the unpopular one in September 2022, have also contributed to nervousness and prompted some Russians to leave the country. While Putin has dismissed claims of an impending mobilization as enemy propaganda, the prospect fuels anxiety among those who fear being drafted against their will. This heightened awareness and subdued mood have not, however, translated into widespread anti-war demonstrations or significant protest votes, according to Volkov and consultant Chris Weafer.
Despite the controlled nature of the elections, factors like voter turnout and the public discourse leading up to the vote remain important to the authorities. The authorities' decision to remove the liberal opposition party Yabloko from the ballot, despite its initial allowance and surge in membership applications driven by its calls for peace, indicated a desire to prevent the election from becoming a debate "for and against peace," according to Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. The Kremlin, Petrov noted, seeks elections primarily as a "demonstration of its great legitimacy."