UK Workers Outside London Losing Over £1,000 Annually Due to Low-Paid Migration, Study Claims
Research indicates a surge in non-UK national workers has impacted wages for British employees outside the capital, with the majority of new jobs over the past decade filled by foreign nationals.
British workers residing outside of London may be experiencing an annual pay reduction of over £1,000 due to an increase in low-paid migration, according to a study from Cambridge Circus Research (CCR). The report, which utilizes previously unpublished HMRC data, suggests that a rise in non-UK nationals in the workforce has suppressed wages, leading to a significant disparity between what British workers are earning and what they might otherwise have earned over the last decade.
CCR's analysis indicates that migrants have secured four out of every five new jobs created in the UK over the past ten years, totaling approximately 2.3 million out of 2.8 million new positions. This trend has coincided with a £18.2 billion shortfall in median wages last year, equating to £1,060 per British worker outside London. Over the entire decade, the study estimates that British workers may have missed out on as much as £78 billion in lost pay, with a considerable portion of this loss occurring after the post-COVID surge in migration when immigration rules were relaxed.
The report highlights that lower-paid workers are disproportionately affected, experiencing reduced hourly pay rather than fewer working hours. While the study does not definitively pinpoint the exact reasons for this wage suppression, it posits that a competitive job market and a notable increase in lower-paying roles within sectors such as hospitality, retail, food processing, and care could be contributing factors.
Cambridge Circus Research, a London-based think-tank that has not disclosed its funding sources, is calling for government action. Their recommendations include cutting visas for low-wage work, implementing high salary thresholds for skilled positions, and publishing transparent pay data broken down by nationality. Hubert Kucharski, the author of the report, stated that migration's cost has been felt more through wages than job displacement, with lower-paid individuals bearing the brunt of reduced hourly pay.
The study's findings are based on analysis of Pay-As-You-Earn (PAYE) tax data for 147 local authorities in England, including London's boroughs. The data suggests that between 2015 and 2025, the total number of jobs held by foreign nationals rose by two-thirds, while the number of jobs held by British workers increased by less than 3 percent. Consequently, one in five UK jobs is now believed to be held by a foreign national.
London was excluded from the primary wage impact calculations due to its unique demographic and economic characteristics. The report notes that higher proportions of arrivals in London come from higher-income countries, which can inflate median wages and skew data for the rest of England. If London were included, the estimated median wage drop could be around £390 annually, though Kucharski acknowledges this figure is less certain.
These findings emerge amid significant changes to the UK's immigration system. The government has already removed over 100 occupations from the list of roles eligible for skilled work visas and paused overseas recruitment for care workers. New requirements for skilled work visas include degree-level experience, a minimum salary of £41,700, and A-level equivalent English proficiency. Lower-skilled workers can still be hired if their roles are on a temporary shortage list, but they cannot bring family members, and employers must demonstrate efforts to train British workers.
Official figures from the Office for National Statistics show that net migration fell to 171,000 last year, an 80 percent decrease from its peak in 2023. The Home Secretary recently stated her office is under constant pressure to relax the government's stringent stance on work visas, acknowledging the ease with which foreign workers have historically been brought in to fill labor shortages without sufficient focus on upskilling the domestic workforce.
A Home Office spokesperson commented that net migration has decreased significantly under the current government, with restrictions placed on overseas recruitment for over 100 lower-skilled jobs. The spokesperson emphasized a commitment to prioritizing British workers by reducing reliance on cheap overseas labor while still welcoming high-skilled talent essential for the economy.