UK Workers Outside London Lose Over £1,000 Annually Due to Low-Paid Migration, Study Claims

British workers outside of London are experiencing an annual loss of over £1,000 in potential earnings due to an increase in low-paid migration, according to a new study. Research utilizing previously unpublished data from Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC) suggests that a rise in non-UK nationals in the workforce has depressed wages, creating a significant disparity between what British workers are earning and what they might otherwise have earned over the past decade.

The study, conducted by Cambridge Circus Research (CCR), a London-based think-tank, indicates that migrants have filled approximately 80% of the 2.8 million new jobs created in the UK over the last ten years. As migration has increased, the shortfall in median wages grew to an estimated £18.2 billion last year, equating to a loss of £1,060 per British worker outside the capital.

Cumulatively, British workers may have missed out on as much as £78 billion in lost pay over the last decade. The report notes that the majority of this loss occurred following a post-Covid surge in migration, coinciding with a relaxation of immigration rules. The impact has disproportionately affected lower-paid workers, with the loss stemming from reduced hourly pay rather than a decrease in working hours.

While the report does not definitively pinpoint the reasons for the wage suppression, it suggests that a competitive job market and a notable increase in roles within lower-paid sectors such as hospitality, retail, food processing, and care may be contributing factors. CCR, which has not disclosed its funding sources, is advocating for government action, including cutting visas for low-wage work, implementing high salary thresholds for skilled positions, and publishing transparent pay data broken down by nationality.

Hubert Kucharski, the author of the report, stated that migration has impacted British workers' pay more significantly than their employment numbers. He emphasized that the cost has been borne by lower-paid individuals, primarily through diminished hourly wages. Kucharski recommended that policy should narrow access to low-wage employment, cease reliance on language rules to protect wages, and make the data underpinning these findings publicly available.

The analysis, which used pay-as-you-earn (PAYE) tax data for 147 local authorities in England, revealed that between 2015 and 2025, foreign nationals took approximately 2.3 million of the 2.8 million new jobs created. For every ten jobs taken by migrants, an estimated four jobs held by UK nationals were lost. During this period, the total number of jobs held by foreign nationals increased by two-thirds, while the number of jobs held by British workers grew by less than 3%. Currently, it is estimated that one in five UK jobs is held by a foreign national.

The study found that areas with a greater increase in migrant employment experienced slower wage growth compared to other regions. London was excluded from the primary analysis because higher-income migrants, such as those from the US, are more prevalent there and tend to increase median wages, potentially skewing the data. Kucharski suggested that if London were included, the median wage drop might be around £390 per year, though he acknowledged this figure's uncertainty.

This research emerges amid a significant overhaul of the UK's immigration system. The government has already removed over 100 occupations from the list of those eligible for skilled worker visas and halted overseas recruitment for care workers. New requirements for skilled worker visas now mandate degree-level experience and a minimum salary of £41,700. Lower-skilled workers may still be hired if their roles are on a temporary shortage list, which includes positions in engineering, IT, sales, and the arts. Those on temporary shortage visas are not permitted to bring family members, and employers must demonstrate efforts to train British workers or risk losing their licensing.