UK Voters Increasingly Willing to Back 'Stop Reform' Candidates, Analysis Shows
New data indicates a growing trend of tactical voting aimed at preventing Nigel Farage's Reform UK party from gaining influence, particularly when the alternative is Labour or Conservative.
Opposition to the Reform UK party appears to be solidifying, with voters increasingly inclined to support candidates who can block Nigel Farage's path to Downing Street, according to new analysis.
Data from YouGov suggests a rising willingness among the public to engage in tactical voting, casting ballots for a 'stop Reform' candidate in their constituency, especially when the choice lies between Labour or the Conservatives. In a hypothetical head-to-head between Labour and Reform, the analysis indicates Labour would secure 41% of the vote compared to Reform's 26%, a 11-point increase in Labour's favor since February.
Green and Liberal Democrat voters show the strongest inclination to lend their support to Labour candidates in such scenarios. Conservative voters, however, are twice as likely to back Reform UK in a direct contest.
Reform UK also faces challenges in direct matchups against the Conservatives, losing by a similar 15-point margin (35% to 20%), with this gap widening by eight points over the past seven months. The party also sees its lead diminish against the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party, despite a recent dip in the latter's popularity.
This analysis comes amid a period of increased scrutiny for Reform UK, including substantial donations totaling £72 million from two cryptocurrency billionaires. The party's standing has also seen a recent decline in broader polling, with recent surveys placing Labour ahead at 23% and the Conservatives at 21%, matching Reform UK's support level. Reform UK dropped two points in this recent polling, reaching its lowest score since January of the previous year.
Westminster has seen speculation about a potential early general election. While Prime Minister Andy Burnham has dismissed such rumors, the possibility of an early vote could allow him to bypass certain manifesto commitments made under Sir Keir Starmer, such as pledges against increasing income tax or reversing Brexit. However, current YouGov research suggests that an election held now would likely result in a deadlock in the House of Commons, with major parties in a near-tie.