UK's Proportional Representation Push Could Lead to Decades of Coalition Governments, Analysis Shows

Britain could face a sustained period of coalition governments if a proposed shift away from the first-past-the-post voting system for Westminster elections is successful. Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced the creation of a new 'national commission' to examine electoral reform during a Labour conference speech, advocating for a system where "everyone's vote counts and everyone's voice is heard."

An analysis of general election results since World War II suggests that proportional representation (PR), specifically the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system used in Northern Ireland, would have prevented a single party from securing a majority in most elections over the past 70 years. The Electoral Reform Society's research indicates that under an STV system, Labour would have fallen short of a majority in the 2024 general election, potentially leading to a minority administration supported by the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party.

Similar outcomes are projected for past elections. In 2019, Boris Johnson's Conservative majority would have been jeopardized under STV, impacting his ability to fulfill the "Get Brexit Done" pledge. The 2017 snap election results also suggest that neither the Conservatives nor Labour would have achieved a majority, potentially placing Jeremy Corbyn in Number 10 as the head of a minority or coalition government. Tony Blair's narrow majority in 1997 might also have been unattainable with STV.

The research posits that the last majority government elected in the UK might have been Harold Wilson's Labour administration in 1966 if STV had been in place for all general elections since the end of World War II. This indicates a significant shift towards multi-party governance under a PR system.

STV involves voters ranking candidates in order of preference in larger multi-member constituencies. The system aims to ensure that elected representatives better reflect the diverse views of the electorate. Votes are transferred based on voter preferences if a candidate is elected with surplus votes or eliminated due to insufficient support.

Burnham has argued that the current first-past-the-post system contributes to political turbulence and leads to "divisive" administrations elected with less than 30% of the vote. He stated that the UK cannot succeed internationally if it continues with such political instability, referencing his position as the seventh Prime Minister in ten years. He called for a "new politics" to underpin the government's plan for Britain, emphasizing that continuing with the current system would be a failure of public duty and could open the door to a divisive government.

The Prime Minister invited all political parties to participate in the national commission on electoral reform, stating that the Labour Party would contest the next election with a manifesto commitment to change the electoral system. Labour's party conference had previously supported a move toward a PR system in 2022, though the 2024 manifesto focused on other constitutional changes.