The number of referrals to the United Kingdom's counter-terrorism scheme, Prevent, surged to a record high of nearly 10,000 people in the year leading up to September 2025. Home Office figures indicate that 10,293 referrals were made for 9,957 individuals across England and Wales, representing a 39% increase compared to the preceding 12 months and marking the highest annual figure since the program's inception in 2015.
The data reveals that a significant portion of these referrals involved children. Where age was known, 393 referrals were for children under 10 years old. The largest group, comprising 36% of referrals, were aged between 11 and 15, followed by 16 to 17-year-olds, who accounted for 13% of all referrals.
Factors Influencing Referral Surge
The Home Office attributes the sharp rise partly to "heightened public awareness of Prevent," particularly following the Southport attacks in July 2024. In that incident, a teenager killed three young girls at a dance class. The perpetrator, Axel Rudakubana, 17 at the time of the attack, had been referred to Prevent on three occasions between 2019 and 2021 due to his interest in terrorist acts and school shootings. However, authorities found no evidence of a fixed ideology or motivation at the time.
A subsequent government review concluded that Rudakubana's case had been closed "prematurely." The review found that counter-terrorism officers involved with the Prevent scheme possessed sufficient information to escalate his case to the next stage, known as Channel, which involves enhanced monitoring for individuals deemed at risk of radicalization.
The Southport attacks may have also contributed to a substantial increase in referrals discussed at Channel panels, which rose by 117% from 997 to 2,159. Additionally, a major review led by Lord David Anderson KC last year noted an increase in Prevent referrals between January and March 2025, coinciding with Rudakubana's trial.
Ideological and Other Referrals
The Home Office also suggested that a combination of "operational and policy changes and improvements, along with associated training rolled out" could have influenced the increase in referrals. Of the total referrals, 20% were due to concerns about extreme right-wing ideology, an increase from 1,480 to 2,103 in the previous year. Islamist extremism accounted for 8% of referrals, while another 8% related to fascination with extreme violence or mass casualty attacks.
Incel extremism represented 1% of referrals, and left-wing extremism accounted for 0.3%. Notably, more than half of all referrals (56%) were for individuals with no identified ideology.
Demographic Data
Data on the ethnicity of those referred to Prevent was published, although providing this information is not mandatory and was included in only 5,315 (52%) of referrals. Of the referrals where ethnicity data was available, 68% were identified as white, 18% as Asian, 8% as black, and 7% were categorized as "other."
The Prevent scheme is a core component of the UK's counter-terrorism strategy, placing a legal obligation on public bodies to identify individuals who may be vulnerable to radicalization and extremism. The figures released by the Home Office pertain to England and Wales, with Scotland reporting its referral data separately.