A senior Conservative Member of Parliament has suggested that the party should be the first to publicly acknowledge the unsustainability of the pensions triple lock, a key pledge for over a decade. The MP argued that such an admission would underscore the Conservatives' commitment to fiscal responsibility.
The current triple lock policy ensures that the state pension increases annually by the highest of three measures: inflation, average wage growth, or 2.5 percent. The MP proposed that a modified system, such as a 'smooth triple lock' equivalent to the average of these three measures, or a 'double lock' based on the higher of inflation or earnings, could be implemented. These changes would aim to reassure pensioners that their incomes would not decrease but would moderate the pace of annual increases to align with the public finances.
According to the MP, the fiscal situation has become increasingly precarious, suggesting that "more emergency surgery than anyone would like" might be necessary. While the party is currently focused on reducing spending on in-work benefits, with identified savings of £23 billion if they win the next election, the MP indicated that further measures, including significant adjustments to the triple lock, may be required to place it on a more sustainable path. This approach, the MP stated, would address long-term sustainability while remaining fair to individuals who have contributed taxes over many years. Furthermore, reducing public spending through such measures could potentially lower government borrowing costs and reassure bond investors.
This discussion follows a recent call from the British Chambers of Commerce to scrap the triple lock, a move they estimated could save the Treasury £3.3 billion over two years by increasing pensions in line with inflation instead. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has also noted that the state pension spending, currently £154 billion annually, is £16 billion higher per year than it would have been without the triple lock's introduction in 2011.
Despite growing internal questions, the triple lock remains official Conservative party policy. However, some prominent figures have expressed reservations. Former Work and Pensions Secretary Baroness Coffey indicated a preference for a "double lock," while ex-Chancellor Sir Jeremy Hunt suggested pensioners might reconsider their support for the policy if they understood its contribution to the national debt. Sir Mel Stride, in his former role as Work and Pensions Secretary, described the policy as unsustainable in the long term. Conversely, Kemi Badenoch insisted a year ago that the Conservatives stood by the policy they created. When questioned last November about potential reforms, the party leader stated that "that moment is not now."