The leaders of Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland have signed a memorandum of understanding that they state signals the end of Westminster's authority, raising concerns about the future unity of the United Kingdom. The pact, signed Monday, calls for constitutional change and suggests the autonomous regions' future lies with the European Union.
This development occurred shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump expressed his desire to "love to see" a reunified Ireland during a visit to the region. The timing of the pact is significant, as it marks the first instance where the leaders of all three constituent countries are either from pro-independence parties or, in the case of Northern Ireland, pro-unification.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham's spokesperson dismissed the pact's threat, stating that the prime minister remains focused on addressing the cost of living and believes in the strength of the union. "The United Kingdom is at its best when people come together around our shared values and problem-solving, rather than division," the spokesperson said.
Experts note that while the summit holds symbolic importance, it lacks legal standing. Nicola McEwen, director of the University of Glasgow Center for Public Policy, stated that the threat to the union is not demonstrably greater than it was prior to the announcement. The UK's devolved governments were established in the late 1990s through legislative acts that granted each country, except England, a degree of policy independence and self-governance, while the UK-wide government in London retained control over national issues.
Scotland's John Swinney and Northern Ireland's Michelle O’Neill have both called for independence referendums in their respective countries. Wales' Rhun ap Iorwerth has not yet set a timeline for such a vote. The leaders attended the signing in their political capacities, a notable detail given O'Neill's position within a power-sharing government that includes the Democratic Unionist Party.
Northern Ireland's Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly criticized O'Neill for "weaponizing" her role as first minister through the signing. O'Neill responded by asserting her position as first minister in Northern Ireland and characterizing the event as part of "historic change."
Scotland previously held an independence referendum in 2014, where 55% of voters rejected secession. However, support for Scottish independence has reportedly grown since the UK's formal departure from the European Union in January 2020. Swinney expressed confidence that voters would now support independence if a referendum were approved.
Burnham had previously indicated a willingness to allow a Scottish independence vote if a clear consensus emerged, but later communicated that such a vote was "off limits." The 1998 Good Friday peace accord, which ended decades of sectarian conflict in Northern Ireland, stipulates that a vote on unification must be held if polls indicate likely passage, a condition the UK government argues has not been met. Ireland would also need to approve unification via a referendum.
Burnham, who has emphasized devolution since taking office, has primarily focused on regional governments within England. Swinney sought to leverage Burnham's rhetoric on devolution, suggesting it logically leads to recognizing Scotland's right to self-determination.
Beyond any immediate threat to the union's integrity, McEwen suggested the pact's most significant impact could be the establishment of routine cooperation among the three leaders, potentially enhancing their collective influence on the UK government. She also noted that the agreement keeps alive the discussion about consent within the union, a topic that UK governments have historically been reluctant to engage with.