UK Government Must Plan for AI Job Disruption, Minister Says

The UK government must prepare for the possibility of significant job losses due to artificial intelligence (AI), according to AI Minister Kanishka Narayan. While there is currently no evidence of an overall reduction in employment because of AI, Narayan stated that developing a contingency plan for worst-case scenarios is a priority.

"If it's going to hit us in a big way, you are going to want to be as ahead of the curve as possible," Narayan told a meeting at the Labour Party conference. He added that the impact of AI might be underestimated due to "silent adoption" by workers, which does not always appear in industry surveys.

Although UK firms have reported no aggregate impact on the labor market to date, Narayan noted that one tech company indicated it had hired fewer people because tasks were automated, suggesting the net impact might not be fully captured. He is committed to ensuring workers have a voice in the AI transition and promised greater transparency regarding AI adoption to measure productivity gains.

Carsten Jung, from the IPPR think tank, warned that in a severe scenario, approximately 8 million jobs could be negatively affected. He is working on a report focusing on AI's disruption of the labor market, described as a "pandemic preparedness" initiative. Jung suggested that AI's impact on the labor market could ultimately be more profound than the industrial revolution.

He acknowledged that earlier projections of stark scenarios were somewhat inaccurate but emphasized AI's rapid evolution from handling routine tasks to performing more complex reasoning and creative functions. Jung estimated that about 11% of UK jobs are highly exposed to replacement by AI chatbots, particularly in secretarial and administrative roles. With advancements in agentic AI, this figure could potentially rise to 60% of tasks across the UK economy.

Jung proposed that the government should be prepared to retrain service sector workers and implement measures to "slow down the transition slightly" to preserve jobs. This could involve adjusting tax structures to make retaining employees more financially attractive than automation. However, he cautioned that implementing policies for severe disruption would be costly, especially for the UK, which has a more service-based economy compared to other G7 nations. Jung also highlighted that women, who are more prevalent in service jobs, are approximately 40% more exposed to AI-related job threats than men.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband also voiced concerns, cautioning against relying solely on "tech titans" to manage AI's safety risks. He argued that history shows corporations cannot be solely trusted to implement safeguards for the public interest, as their primary motive is profit maximization, not public welfare. Miliband stated that while AI's technological progress is inspiring, the risks are daunting, and the UK will take a leading role, particularly through its G20 presidency, in managing AI to ensure safety. Mike Clancy, general secretary of the Prospect trade union, welcomed the government's focus on worker involvement but cautioned against creating conditions where workers become casualties of AI.

Narayan stated that his top priority is to develop contingency plans for potential job losses and indicated that this might involve changes to labor market policy and potentially some aspects of regulation.