The United Kingdom's government is once again consulting on changes to its electric vehicle (EV) sales targets, a move that has drawn criticism from industry figures and motorists alike. This latest consultation, initiated by the Department for Transport, aims to adjust targets for EV sales between now and the end of the decade, citing complex global economic conditions and supply chain disruptions.
This marks the latest in a series of shifts to the UK's EV sales strategy, a timeline that has seen multiple adjustments since 2017. The initial plan in July 2017 proposed banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2040. By November 2020, Prime Minister Boris Johnson accelerated this target to 2030. However, in 2023, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a five-year delay, pushing the deadline to 2035, citing the cost of living and the upfront cost of EVs for families.
The current focus of the consultation is the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, which requires manufacturers to sell an increasing proportion of EVs each year. The mandate began with a target of 22% EV sales in 2024, rising to 28% in 2025 and projected to reach 33% for 2026. Under the current trajectory, 80% of new car sales were to be electric by 2030. The new consultation proposes potentially lowering these end-of-decade thresholds to 70%, 60%, or even 50%.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander stated that the end goal remains unchanged but emphasized the need to bring industry along on the journey, ensuring the pathway is "pro-business and grounded in the real-world." The department is also reviewing the role of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and how to further incentivize their use in electric mode.
Carmakers, represented by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), have been vocal proponents of reforming the ZEV mandate, arguing that the current pace of transition, while increasing EV sales, comes at an unsustainable cost. The SMMT claims manufacturers have invested billions in discounts and incentives to boost demand, a strategy that cannot continue indefinitely. Taxpayers are also contributing through grants reducing the price of new models. A coalition of major car companies, including BMW, Ford, Nissan, and Toyota, alongside automotive supplier Bosch, previously urged ministers to rethink the transition timetable, advocating for an "open technology approach" that would allow a wider mix of low-emission technologies, including hybrids and efficient combustion engines, to remain on sale.
However, some industry figures argue that the push for delays comes from manufacturers slower to adopt EVs, seeking time to catch up. Dr. Andy Palmer, former chief executive of Aston Martin, suggested these companies are lobbying for delays at the expense of those who have moved more quickly.
Companies heavily invested in the EV infrastructure, such as charging network operator InstaVolt and Octopus Electric Vehicles, have expressed concern. Delvin Lane, CEO of InstaVolt, warned that softening the mandate could spook private capital essential for building the necessary charging infrastructure. Gurjeet Grewal, CEO of Octopus Electric Vehicles, stated that the ZEV mandate is working, providing confidence for investment and driver switching. He estimates that altering the targets could cost drivers approximately £3 billion annually in higher petrol costs by 2030.
While headline EV sales figures might appear to fall short of targets, the reality is complex due to built-in flexibilities and allowances within the ZEV mandate. These mechanisms effectively lower the required EV sales mix for many manufacturers, with most major brands currently on track to comply this year. However, the SMMT maintains that even meeting these adjusted targets incurs unmanageable costs.
Beyond the sales targets, uncertainty remains regarding the types of vehicles that will be available beyond 2030. While pure petrol and diesel cars are expected to be phased out, the future of hybrids is less clear. "Mild hybrids" are unlikely to meet the criteria, and "self-charging hybrids" like the Toyota Prius may also face scrutiny due to limited electric-only capability. Plug-in hybrids, particularly those with longer electric-only ranges, appear to be the strongest candidates for survival, though their effectiveness relies on regular charging by owners. The lack of clarity extends to the government's own position on these evolving technologies.