The UK government is initiating a new consultation that could significantly alter Electric Vehicle (EV) sales targets for manufacturers, signaling another shift in its strategy for phasing out new petrol and diesel cars. The proposed changes to the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, which requires manufacturers to sell an increasing proportion of EVs each year, have sparked debate about the future of the automotive industry in Britain.
The ZEV mandate, introduced in 2024, began with a target of 22% of new cars sold being electric, rising to 28% last year, and set at 33% for 2026. The trajectory aimed for 80% of new car sales to be electric by 2030. However, the current consultation is exploring substantially lower end-of-decade thresholds, with options ranging from 50% to 70% of new car sales being electric. Additional flexibility for manufacturers over the next three years is also under consideration.
Industry groups, such as the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), have been advocating for reforms to the ZEV mandate, citing the significant financial incentives and discounts manufacturers have provided to boost EV sales. According to the SMMT, these efforts, while increasing demand, are becoming unsustainable. The trade body argues that billions of pounds have been invested in discounts and grants, with taxpayers also contributing through grants reducing the price of new models.
This move follows a series of changes to the UK's EV transition timeline. Originally, a ban on petrol and diesel car sales was proposed for 2040. This was later accelerated to 2030 by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. In 2023, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak cited the cost of living as a reason to delay the ban by five years to 2035, though he also introduced the ZEV mandate. The Labour Party, aiming to appeal to environmentally conscious voters, pledged to reinstate the 2030 ban but has since introduced flexibilities to the policy. The latest consultation appears to stem from proposals to further adjust these targets.
While car manufacturers have lobbied for greater flexibility, charging point operators and green campaigners express concern. Delvin Lane, CEO of InstaVolt, warned that softening the mandate could undermine private capital investment crucial for building charging infrastructure. Gurjeet Grewal, CEO of Octopus Electric Vehicles, stated that weakening the mandate would send the wrong signal to businesses looking to invest and create jobs in the UK.
Some manufacturers, including BMW, Ford, Nissan, and Toyota, alongside automotive giant Bosch, have previously advocated for an 'open technology approach,' which would allow a broader mix of low-emission technologies, such as hybrids and plug-in hybrids, to remain on sale beyond 2035. This mirrors efforts in the European Union, where lawmakers have eased EV-only mandates. Former Aston Martin CEO Dr. Andy Palmer has suggested that manufacturers who have been slow to adopt EVs are the ones lobbying for delays to catch up, potentially at the expense of those who have invested more quickly in the transition.
The report notes that while headline EV sales targets may seem unmet, the ZEV mandate's built-in flexibilities and allowances mean most major brands are currently on track to comply. These mechanisms effectively lower the required EV sales mix for many manufacturers, bringing it closer to 25% for the current year, a figure the industry is largely meeting.
Despite the ongoing discussions about sales targets, uncertainty remains regarding the availability of specific models in the years leading up to and following 2030. The fate of different types of hybrid vehicles, particularly mild hybrids and self-charging hybrids, is unclear, while plug-in hybrids with significant electric-only range are seen as stronger contenders, provided owners consistently charge them. The article concludes that clarity on the future mix of vehicle technologies remains elusive for both the industry and the government.