More than 100,000 jobs in the North Sea oil and gas sector are projected to disappear by 2050, representing an 80 percent drop from 2024 levels, according to Labour's own figures.
Analysis based on Freedom of Information requests to the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) shows that the sector, which employed 136,675 people directly and indirectly in 2024, could see employment fall to 23,584 by 2050. This represents a loss of 113,091 jobs, or 82.7 percent.
The department's analysis suggests that each direct job in the industry supports an additional 4.4 jobs in the wider supply chain across the country. Projections indicate that by 2030, a total of 54,268 jobs could be lost, and by 2035, more than half the workforce, or 77,783 individuals, may have lost their positions.
Labour's manifesto included a commitment to ban new oil and gas licenses and has maintained a windfall tax on the sector. The party's approach comes as ministers are reportedly considering significant investment in new infrastructure to facilitate the import of foreign gas, potentially including acquiring a ship for liquefied gas transport or establishing a natural gas stockpile.
This consideration of importing foreign gas raises questions regarding decisions on the UK's own domestic oil and gas fields. Ministers are expected to rule on whether two Scottish fields, Rosebank and Jackdaw, can be drilled by next month. Rosebank is described as the largest untapped oil field in the North Sea, located approximately 80 miles northwest of Shetland, while Jackdaw is situated about 150 miles east of Aberdeen.
Reports suggest that the government may approve the Jackdaw site but not Rosebank. A government minister has previously stated that oil and gas use will continue for some time, posing the question of accelerating its use to fund the transition to clean energy and whether extraction can serve as a bridge to a cleaner future.
However, this stance faces opposition from within the party, with some advocating for stricter adherence to Net Zero goals, and from those in Scotland seeking to preserve the oil and gas industry. Developers argue that approving fields like Jackdaw could support over 3,500 jobs and generate more than £20 billion in revenue.
Conservative representatives have highlighted the projected job losses, criticizing the potential shutdown of the domestic industry. They argue that this would necessitate increased imports of fuel with higher emissions and lead to significant job losses.
A spokesperson for the DESNZ affirmed that oil and gas will continue to be important in the UK's energy system for decades during the transition to cleaner power sources.