UFC Vegas 122 Predictions and Best Bets for Saturday's Card
Expert picks and betting strategies for all 12 fights at UFC Vegas 122, with a focus on key matchups.
The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the APEX facility this Saturday for UFC Vegas 122, featuring a 12-fight card. This marks the second time in eight events that the promotion has held a fight night at the APEX.
A significant portion of the scheduled bouts, eight out of twelve, are projected to end before the final bell, continuing a trend of early finishes seen in recent events. Last week's card saw 11 of 14 fights conclude by knockout or submission.
Key Matchup: Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
In a notable middleweight contest, Brendan Allen faces Christian Leroy Duncan. Duncan, who has secured five consecutive victories, has competed against a lower caliber of opponents compared to Allen. Allen, however, has faced top-tier competition in the division and has a history of exceeding expectations, notably dominating Reiner De Ridder as a significant underdog.
Duncan is recognized for his athleticism and explosive striking. However, his tendency to expend considerable energy could be a concern in a five-round fight against the experienced Allen. Despite this, Duncan's decision line of +500 is considered high by some analysts, given the potential for a competitive striking battle.
There is a tactical consideration regarding Duncan's use of spinning kicks against higher-level opponents. For this bout, a recommended strategy includes betting on the fight to go the distance, with a smaller wager on Duncan winning by decision.
Recommended Bets: Fight to go the distance (+138), Christian Leroy Duncan wins by decision (+500).
Lightweight Bout: Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert
The lightweight division features Matheus Camilo against Jai Herbert. Herbert, at 38 years old, is known for his volume striking and power but has shown durability issues. He previously knocked down Ilia Topuria, who has since become a prominent figure in the division, before being knocked out by him in 2022.
Camilo, a 25-year-old prospect training at Xtreme Couture, is being closely watched by coach Eric Nicksick. Given Camilo's striking power, a prediction for him to win by knockout or technical knockout is suggested.
Recommended Bet: Matheus Camilo by KO/TKO (+150).
Full Card Predictions
Additional picks for the UFC Vegas 122 card include:
- Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza: Fight goes the distance (-275).
- Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III: Kai Kamaka III to win (+135).
- Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi: Malcolm Wellmaker by decision (+300).
- Julius Walker vs. Gerald Meerschaert: A small bet on Meerschaert (19/1).
- Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim: Prado wins and the fight starts round two (+110).
- Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan: Either fighter to win by KO/TKO in round 1 (+300).
- Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro: Under 1.5 rounds (-158).
- Allen Frye Jr. vs. RJ Harris: Over 1.5 rounds (-110); Fight goes the distance (+320).
- Alice Pereira vs. Daria Zhelezniakova: Zhelezniakova by decision (+239).
- Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Melissa Gatto: Kareckaite by decision (+158).
Erich Richter, a contributor for New York Post Betting, has demonstrated significant profits in MMA betting, with a reported return on investment of 30.15 percent since 2022.