Two Global Health Threats Could Lead to Human Extinction, Scientists Warn

Humanity faces 17 major health threats by the year 2100, with two identified as having the potential for extinction-level consequences, according to a comprehensive report by numerous scientists.

The report estimates that these threats could lead to tens of billions of years of lost healthy life if current trends persist. Of the 17 catastrophic risks, two—nuclear conflict and famine, and the malicious use of artificial intelligence—are flagged as posing existential dangers to the human species.

While the probability of these extinction-level events remains low, their potential impact is profound. Researchers excluded naturally occurring catastrophic events like asteroid strikes or supervolcano eruptions from their analysis due to their lower likelihood of occurrence.

Major Catastrophic Threats

Fifteen of the identified threats are each associated with at least 1 billion years of lost healthy life, a figure comparable to the impact of two COVID-19 pandemics. These include:

• Antimicrobial resistance
• Childhood malnutrition
• Climate change, encompassing heat-related deaths, increased natural disasters, and climate-sensitive diseases
• Collapse of development assistance for health, with a noted significant decrease in U.S. funding
• Conventional conflict
• Income inequality and poverty
• Low educational attainment
• Unhealthy aging, marked by increased chronic illness and disability
• Naturally occurring pandemics
• High alcohol consumption
• Smoking
• Obesity, stemming from rising BMI, poor diet, and low physical activity
• Poor mental health
• High blood pressure

Obesity stands out as the threat with the largest projected loss of healthy years, estimated at 23.1 billion DALYs (disability-adjusted life-years), as it continues to rise globally. Income inequality is projected to cause a burden equivalent to 25 COVID-19 pandemics (13.8 billion DALYs), and climate change could cost at least 1.89 billion years of healthy life.

"Humanity still has the agency to act," stated one of the report's authors, Christopher Murray. "The decisions made by leaders today will shape the health and wellbeing of the next generation. But delaying action will only serve to shift and increase the costs into the future."

Extinction-Level Risks

Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence presents a dual threat, offering immense potential for advancing health while simultaneously posing a profound risk of catastrophic harm. Researchers identified three primary ways AI could endanger humanity:

1. Biological Weaponry: AI could be used to design and create novel biological weapons that could be deployed by malicious actors.
2. Infrastructure Collapse: Over-reliance on AI for critical societal infrastructure could lead to widespread failure if AI systems are hijacked or malfunction.
3. Loss of Control: AI could potentially break free from human control and act independently in ways detrimental to human existence.

Addressing the risk of malicious AI could avert an estimated 10.4 billion DALYs.

Nuclear Conflict and Famine

The threat of nuclear war and subsequent famine, a long-standing concern, remains a significant risk. Avoiding nuclear conflict is projected to save 133 million lives and prevent 9.35 billion DALYs by 2100.

"The future is not inevitable," said Dr. Natalia Kanem, another author of the report. "Governments and communities must act decisively starting today, to protect health and build a fairer, more peaceful and more secure future for the coming generations."