Two Elections Show Setbacks for Nationalist Right, Sparking Hope for Democratic Organizing

Recent elections in Serbia and Brazil have delivered significant repudiations of right-wing populist movements, offering a potential reminder of the power of democratic organizing. In Serbia, an insurgent student-backed movement successfully challenged the country's ruling right-wing political machine. Simultaneously, Brazilian voters reelected incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva over his far-right challenger, Flávio Bolsonaro, who represented the continuation of former President Jair Bolsonaro's political movement.

These results, occurring within a 24-hour span, suggest that organizing efforts can still be a potent force for electoral change. While cautioning against declaring a definitive trend, analysts note the significance of these outcomes in the current global political climate.

Serbian Student Movement

The Serbian election saw the "Student List," an opposition electoral slate, emerge victorious. This movement began in 2024, following a partial collapse of a railway station that resulted in 16 fatalities. The government's perceived failure to fully explain the cause of the collapse and hold responsible parties accountable fueled months of protests, including marches and bike rides. This sustained public engagement eventually coalesced into the Student List, which fielded 250 candidates in Sunday's parliamentary elections. The movement's success is largely attributed to its ability to mobilize unexpected numbers of voters through grassroots organizing.

Brazilian Runoff Election

The Brazilian election presented a different scenario. President Lula da Silva, a leftist incumbent, faced a close runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula's second-place finish in the initial vote served as a significant wake-up call, galvanizing support for the runoff. According to Guilherme Casarões, an associate professor of Brazilian studies at Florida International University, the runoff campaign saw an unprecedented mobilization of people through both street protests and social media. One WhatsApp channel dedicated to turning out voters for Lula reportedly grew to nearly 11 million followers, highlighting the effectiveness of digital organizing in the campaign.

Implications for American Movements

These international examples offer a contrast to the influence of some American pro-democracy movements, which have faced challenges in translating protest energy into concrete political action such as voter registration and candidate fielding. However, there are emerging signs of shifts in strategy within the U.S. Some organizations, like No Kings, have reportedly pivoted to focus more on urging voter participation in elections. Indivisible, a group associated with the movement, has claimed that early voting surged in zip codes where recent protests occurred, suggesting a potential increase in political organizing.

While the scale of these shifts in the U.S. may not yet match the impact seen in Serbia or Brazil, these developments indicate a growing focus on electoral outcomes as a means of driving democratic change. The outcomes in Serbia and Brazil serve as a reminder that electoral surprises can occur, driven by organized public engagement.