President Donald Trump’s federalization of the District of Columbia’s police force in August coincided with a 13-day period without a recorded homicide, an analysis by the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) found, a development the group said disproportionately benefited Black residents who comprise the majority of homicide victims in the city.
The CPRC analysis, cited by founder John Lott, said there were no recorded homicides in the District beginning the afternoon of Aug. 13 through the early morning hours of Aug. 26, when a 31-year-old man was fatally shot. Using the city’s homicide rate from the first seven months of 2025, Lott calculated a 0.37% probability that such a streak would occur by chance.
Trump invoked section 740 of the District of Columbia Home Rule Act on Aug. 11, temporarily assuming emergency control over the capital’s police force for up to 30 days and deploying federal agents and National Guard personnel to assist local law enforcement. The federal operation led to 1,914 total arrests in the District as of Sept. 5, authorities said, including individuals charged with immigration violations, outstanding warrants, possession of illegal firearms or drugs, and other offenses.
Lott and the CPRC said the short-term decline in homicides overwhelmingly benefited Black Americans, pointing to Department of Justice data showing that between 2019 and 2021 Black victims accounted for 96% of homicides in the District. "Those homicides would have invariably been very heavily Black," Lott said in an interview. "And so those lives, you have Blacks who didn't die, who otherwise would have died." He also argued broader economic effects could assist poorer residents by reducing business closures and high retail costs linked to crime-related security measures.
The D.C. streak followed an earlier 16-day run with no homicides from Feb. 24 to March 13. Lott noted, however, that seasonal variation typically pushes homicides higher during summer months when people spend more time outdoors and days are longer. He said more granular monthly historical data would be necessary to adjust for seasonality and could make the August result appear more statistically significant.
The CPRC analysis comes as the Justice Department is investigating assertions that the Metropolitan Police Department manipulated crime data to show more favorable statistics. The DOJ probe and the CPRC’s reliance on partial-period data were among caveats experts raised about attributing the homicide decline directly to federal intervention.
The decision to federalize D.C. and the notion of sending federal forces or the National Guard to other cities have drawn sharp reactions from Democratic leaders and local officials. Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson has argued that incarceration and expanded policing do not solve violence, saying during an August news conference that mass incarceration had failed to reduce crime. Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker called the prospect of using the military in U.S. cities a "dangerous power-grab," saying the federal action in Washington was driven by politics rather than local requests.
Trump and his campaign have promoted the D.C. operation as part of a broader pledge to cut violent crime in U.S. cities, saying federal intervention can restore safety in jurisdictions they describe as mismanaged. Advisors and proponents have pointed to the number of arrests and the temporary homicide lull as evidence that federal resources can have immediate effects.
Critics contend that federal deployments can strain local governance and raise civil liberties concerns. They also note that comparisons across cities require careful attention to baseline crime rates and population differences. CPRC founder Lott addressed prioritization, noting that in 2024 Chicago recorded 573 murders while Memphis recorded 242, and arguing that focusing on larger murder counts could save more lives overall if the aim is to reduce total homicides.
Civilian and policing groups in Washington described changes in street-level enforcement following the Aug. 11 federalization, with checkpoints and expanded patrols in parts of the city. Local residents and business owners have reported heightened security measures at retail outlets, including plexiglass barriers and restricted access to merchandise, which some analysts say increases operating costs and can reduce convenience for low-income shoppers when stores close or scale back operations.
The federal presence in the District remains a point of contention as national political debates over crime and policing intensify ahead of the 2026 election cycle. Advocates for tougher enforcement point to short-term reductions in homicides and the number of arrests, while opponents caution that longer-term effects, community trust, and the integrity of crime data must be carefully examined.
The CPRC report and Lott’s comments frame the D.C. operation as a life-saving intervention for populations most likely to be homicide victims, but investigators and some researchers emphasize the need for fuller, seasonally adjusted data and independent review amid the Justice Department’s ongoing inquiry into the Metropolitan Police Department’s reporting practices.
