Trump Weighs Iran Strikes Before Midterms Amid Oil Price Concerns
The White House has reportedly asked the Pentagon to prepare options for fresh strikes on Iran, potentially impacting oil prices ahead of the November elections.
President Donald Trump is considering authorizing new strikes against Iran before the upcoming midterm elections, according to a report from The Atlantic, citing two administration officials. The White House has asked the Pentagon to develop potential strike options that could be executed prior to voters going to the polls in November.
The potential for renewed hostilities has already caused market reactions, with Brent crude prices rising past $105 a barrel on Thursday. US Central Command is currently drafting plans, but details regarding the scale of strikes, specific targets, and a final decision from the president remain under discussion.
Supporters of resuming strikes believe such action could be perceived as a presidential win. However, some officials acknowledge that new strikes are unlikely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global oil transport, or force Iran to negotiate before Election Day. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over Iran's nuclear program and control of the strait have been stalled for months.
Recent Qatari-mediated talks have made little progress. Iran is reportedly seeking a return to a previous ceasefire agreement, which collapsed weeks after its inception. The U.S. had accused Iran of violating the terms by attacking oil vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to U.S. strikes on Iranian radar sites, vessels, and military outposts in the Persian Gulf.
The current high energy prices have presented a challenge for Republicans seeking to maintain their majorities in Congress. Trump himself has suggested that relief at the pump may not come until after the election, stating last month that oil prices would fall "right after the election." Resuming military action close to the vote could further exacerbate these challenges, especially given public sentiment, with a Reuters/Ipsos poll indicating low approval for Trump's handling of Iran and a Politico poll suggesting many voters blame the conflict for rising energy costs.
The conflict is also affecting the wider region, with Yemen's Houthi rebels claiming responsibility for recent attacks on Saudi Arabia's main airport. Additionally, reports and footage have emerged of Iranian ballistic missiles, drones, and fighter jets attacking a major U.S. base in Kuwait earlier in the conflict.
