President Donald Trump has been privately cautioned by top advisers, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, that the ongoing conflict with Iran could potentially last until January 2029, according to reports. These assessments were shared with Trump during recent meetings in the Oval Office and the Situation Room.
This warning comes as Trump previously stated to reporters that the conflict would end swiftly after the November midterm elections, asserting that Tehran "can't hold out any longer." For months, Iran has responded to U.S. pressure to halt its nuclear program by disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane for approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply. The U.S. has conducted military strikes targeting Iranian assets along the strait to protect oil tankers.
The escalating tensions have impacted global markets, with Brent crude trading at $101 per barrel, a level not seen since May, amid concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. Economists suggest that a prolonged war could lead to sustained high gas and consumer goods prices in the United States.
Sources indicate a temporary ceasefire agreed upon in June collapsed weeks later when the U.S. resumed strikes, accusing Iran of attacking commercial vessels. Negotiations remain at an impasse, with Trump unwilling to accept a deal that does not fully address U.S. demands for Iran to cease its nuclear program and relinquish its enriched uranium stockpile. Iran, in turn, seeks joint control over the Strait of Hormuz and the ability to charge tankers for passage, partly to offset damages from U.S. strikes.
In April, the Trump administration imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports to exert economic pressure. While Iranian crude exports through the Gulf have been largely cut off since mid-July, Tehran has continued to sell oil from tankers positioned outside the blockade. However, these reserves have significantly diminished, with estimates suggesting they could be depleted by next month.
