Former President Donald Trump has intensified his rhetoric regarding Iran's nuclear program, specifically threatening to strike the deeply buried "Pickaxe Mountain" nuclear facility. This threat comes amid reports, attributed to Israeli intelligence, suggesting that thousands of centrifuges have been moved into the site in recent months. The facility, estimated to be located at least 100 meters beneath rock near Iran's Natanz nuclear enrichment complex, was designed as a replacement for an above-ground plant destroyed in 2020.
Trump stated on Tuesday that the United States would likely "strike the area pretty soon and very heavily." He acknowledged the possibility that centrifuges may have been moved into Pickaxe Mountain, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, but emphasized that the United States did not have this information "on record." He added, "We follow the material," referring to Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles.
Analysts and military experts are divided on the implications of these threats and the feasibility of striking the facility. Pickaxe Mountain's depth and fortification present significant challenges for conventional bunker-busting weapons. Some experts believe that airstrikes might only seal the entrances temporarily, rather than destroying the facility's interior. Satellite imagery indicates ongoing construction at the site, with Iran appearing to reinforce tunnel entrances against potential airstrikes.
Spencer Faragasso, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Science and International Security, suggested that while the facility is still under construction and unlikely to be operational, centrifuges could have been moved inside undetected. He noted that the facility is one of the last major nuclear-related sites of its size that has not been targeted. Faragasso also stated that the tunnel entrances could be collapsed as a less destructive option, potentially denying Iran access.
Nicole Grajewski, an assistant professor at Sciences Po, expressed skepticism about the possibility of destroying the facility through air campaigns, describing it as "very close to impossible" due to its depth and fortification. However, she noted that collapsing the portals could prevent Iran from moving personnel or equipment without detection, potentially triggering further action. Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Robert Spalding suggested that the goal would be to assess whether to destroy the interior or simply prevent its use, with options including denying access if destruction is infeasible.
Before recent events, the International Atomic Energy Agency had verified Iran's possession of 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, which could be further enriched for approximately 10 nuclear weapons. Inspectors have since faced limitations in verifying the amount, condition, or location of this material. The Institute for Science and International Security assesses that the enriched uranium remains at known sites and has not entered Pickaxe Mountain.