President Donald Trump has indicated that the United States might maintain a presence in Iran to extract oil even after the current conflict concludes, drawing a parallel to a recent deal involving Venezuela.
Speaking to reporters over the weekend, Trump suggested the possibility of "staying and keeping the oil" in Iran, comparing the potential strategy to actions taken regarding Venezuela's oil resources. "We’ll ultimately get out unless we decide to stay and keep the oil, like Venezuela," Trump stated. The war in Iran is anticipated to conclude after the U.S. midterm elections in November.
The Trump administration previously secured an agreement through the Pentagon's Office of Strategic Capital with North American Blue Energy Partners, a private firm and Venezuela's second-largest oil producer. This deal allows the U.S. to purchase up to 20 percent of Venezuela's oil at its production cost.
"We have the oil now," Trump said Sunday, referencing the Venezuelan deal. "We’re bringing millions and millions in." This arrangement aims to replenish the U.S. strategic oil reserve and help stabilize domestic gasoline prices, which have risen due to the ongoing conflict.
However, the practicalities of a similar arrangement in Iran present significant challenges, given the country's geographic distance from the U.S. and its current leadership. The feasibility of organizing a large-scale oil transfer from Iran remains uncertain.
If such a plan were enacted, it could necessitate the deployment of U.S. military personnel to Iran to oversee oil extraction operations. While Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, indicated a production target of up to 1.5 million barrels of oil per day under the U.S. deal, experts note that Iranian leaders may be less receptive to such an arrangement.
César Dager, a partner at Tower Strategy, commented that the Venezuela deal succeeded because its leadership was pragmatic and prioritized survival over ideology, allowing the oil sector to transact quickly. "Iran is a different negotiating partner," Dager stated. He further explained that any deal resembling the Venezuela model in Iran would require a sustained U.S. security presence to protect infrastructure and operating companies, a commitment that was not a factor in the Venezuela agreement.
Trump's remarks come as the administration seeks solutions to address soaring U.S. gas prices ahead of the November elections. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline has reached $4.32, according to AAA, with diesel fuel hitting a record high of $6.23 per gallon. These prices represent a significant increase compared to pre-war levels.
Inflation and economic concerns, including gas prices, have been identified as top issues by voters in recent polls. Trump has previously asserted that gas prices would decrease significantly after the elections, though specific explanations for this prediction have been limited.
The Iran war has been ongoing for over six months, exceeding Trump's initial six-week projection. Global oil prices have surged approximately 20 percent in the past month, reaching around $109 per barrel for Brent crude, due to disruptions in critical shipping lanes. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world's oil supply passes, is currently under a U.S. blockade of Iranian vessels.
Further contributing to oil price volatility are recent advances by Houthi forces in Yemen, which have increased their control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and an Iranian-backed attack that severely damaged Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline. This pipeline, vital for transporting approximately four percent of the global oil supply, was hit by an attack launched from Iraq.