Trump's Shifting Stance on Energy Costs Amidst Iran War and Midterm Elections

President Donald Trump has faced a challenging energy market since the onset of the war with Iran nearly eight months ago, a situation that complicates Republican efforts to retain control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections. Trump had previously emphasized low gas prices as a key campaign promise.

The conflict has led to volatile crude oil prices, impacting gasoline and diesel costs. Consumers are feeling the strain of rising living expenses, with these concerns at the forefront for many voters heading into Election Day on November 3.

As of Monday, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $4.29, a notable increase from $2.98 prior to the war. Diesel prices surpassed $6 last month, setting a record, and are now averaging $6.35 a gallon, up from $3.76 in February.

Trump has characterized the elevated fuel costs as a justifiable price for the war, which he asserts is necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. He has also continued to attribute the nation's economic challenges to his predecessor, Joe Biden. Simultaneously, Trump has attempted to frame the global oil market situation as beneficial for U.S. domestic production.

"We’re making a freaking fortune," Trump told supporters at a campaign rally in Georgia over the weekend.

Evolving Energy Discourse

Trump initially highlighted favorable gas prices in his 2026 State of the Union address, delivered shortly before U.S. forces joined attacks on Iran on February 28. At that time, he stated, "Gasoline, which reached a peak of over $6 a gallon in some states under my predecessor and was, quite honestly, a disaster, is now below $2.30 a gallon in most states, and in some places $1.99 a gallon." He noted seeing prices as low as $1.85 a gallon in Iowa, the lowest in four years.

Nationwide, gasoline prices averaged $2.95 a gallon, approximately 19 cents lower than the previous year.

Less than two weeks into the war, as oil prices began to climb, Trump identified a positive aspect. "The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money," he posted on his social media platform, Truth Social. During this period, Brent crude oil cost over $100 a barrel, a rise from about $70 in 2025.

As oil costs decreased with emerging hopes for peace in the summer, Trump expressed dissatisfaction that gas prices were not declining more rapidly. "They’re too high considering that Oil is now at $68 a Barrel, and heading south," he wrote online. "The Retailers must quickly react to this statement, and do what they know is right — DROP YOUR PRICE FOR OUR GREAT AMERICAN PEOPLE! There will be no gauging, which is totally illegal. If Retailers don’t do this, big problems lie ahead!"

At that time, the national average for gasoline was $3.86 a gallon, down from over $4.50 in May but still about 67 cents higher than the previous year.

Leading up to the Fourth of July holiday, Trump predicted falling gas prices. "Just as I promised, Oil Prices are plummeting FAST, and Gas Prices at the pump are dropping too, but not as fast as they should be," he posted, anticipating discounts at some "Freedom Fuel" stations. He added, "Gas Prices will soon be back to the Record Low Prices Americans enjoyed at the pump before our very successful ‘excursion’ in Iran.” Brent crude had fallen to $71.57 a barrel from its earlier triple-digit highs.

By early September, Trump indicated that he did not anticipate oil prices would decrease before the midterm elections. "Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward," he said. "I think it’s going to take a little bit longer than the midterm."

As fighting intensified again, Brent crude surpassed $101, compared to $66 a barrel a year prior.

At a campaign event in North Carolina, Trump continued to downplay the surge in gas prices, reiterating that the war was necessary. "You have a little higher. It’s a very inexpensive price to pay for what we’ve done," Trump stated. "Remember that. It’s a little more. Frankly, even if it was a lot more."

At that point, gasoline prices averaged $4.37 a gallon, approximately $1.18 more than in the same period of 2025.

Recent Actions and Promises

Earlier this month, Trump announced an agreement to purchase Russian diesel fuel aimed at curbing a spike in fuel prices, a significant shift from years of U.S. efforts to pressure Moscow over its war with Ukraine. He also maintained that the U.S. controlled the Strait of Hormuz, despite traffic levels remaining below pre-war figures amidst threats from Tehran.

"Between our TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz, and this great announcement on Russian Energy, Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!" he wrote. "Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority."

The national average for diesel was $6.28 a gallon, a slight decrease from its peak of nearly $6.53 in September.

Trump also introduced a new harvest fuel relief program, intended to offset high diesel costs and provide $8 billion in support for farmers. "When Republicans win, we will pass even more funding for our farmers," Trump said at a Kansas campaign rally.

Nationwide, diesel averaged about $6.32 a gallon, a 74% increase from the previous year when the fuel cost $3.63 a gallon.