Trump's Policies Strain Farmer Loyalty Ahead of Midterms

Oklahoma farmer Brent Rendel is finding it increasingly difficult to plan his crops due to rising diesel and fertilizer costs, alongside shifting tariff policies from the Trump administration. This has led to a noticeable shift in political sentiment among farmers, traditionally strong supporters of President Trump.

"From my discussions with other farmers, there is a higher level of dissatisfaction with what's going on with the [Trump] Administration," Rendel stated. "You didn't used to really see that, but now we're seeing it and hearing it."

This discontent could present a significant challenge for Trump and the Republican party in the upcoming midterm elections. While Trump secured 69% of the rural vote in 2024, an August AP-KFF poll indicated that 57% of rural voters disapprove of his economic policies. Among rural Republican voters, 27% disapproved of his economic handling, and this group was notably less likely to express certainty about voting in November.

Nationally, three-quarters of rural voters described the cost of living in their communities as "fair" or "poor." A Reuters/Ipsos poll in June had already shown Trump's approval rating among rural Americans dropping to a new low of 50%, with only 31% approving of his economic policies.

These findings emerge as Democrats are showing competitive polling in traditionally Republican states like Texas, Iowa, and Kansas. Democratic leaders are also addressing farmers' economic concerns. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senator Amy Klobuchar have introduced legislation to establish an "America’s first-ever fertilizer reserve," aiming to protect farmers and the economy.

Farmers and agricultural experts point to several overlapping pressures, including Trump's expansion of low-tariff beef imports, rising fertilizer and diesel costs exacerbated by a global energy crisis, and tariffs that increase production costs while provoking retaliatory measures against U.S. exports.

The impact has extended to consumers, who have seen grocery prices climb. A September AP-NORC poll found 64% of Americans believe Trump has "gone too far" with tariffs. A recent tariff dispute with Canada has further raised economic concerns, particularly in states like Montana, where Canada is a major export market.

White House spokesperson Olivia Wales told TIME that Trump "has repeatedly affirmed his support for America’s great farmers and ranchers." She added that the administration is "implementing the proven Trump agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, and energy abundance to keep America on a solid economic trajectory."

Beef Imports

The average price of ground beef in the U.S. has risen sharply since late 2020, increasing from $5.58 per pound in August 2024 to $6.92 in August 2026, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Factors contributing to this surge include shrinking cattle herds, drought, and strong demand. The U.S. cattle inventory reached a 75-year low at the start of 2026.

Trump's 90-day suspension of tariffs on imported beef, intended to ease grocery bills, went into effect September 1. However, the American Farm Bureau Federation has reported that increased imports have not led to lower consumer prices. Their analysis found that ground beef prices at numerous grocery stores remained largely unchanged in late September compared to early September.

Texas Commissioner for Agriculture Sid Miller, an eighth-generation farmer, noted that ranchers are unhappy with the scheme, stating that only packers and processors are benefiting, not ranchers or consumers. He added that calves going to market are currently fetching $300-500 less.

Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University, described ground beef as the "poster child for higher food prices" and a focus of political debate. He believes cattle producers feel Trump is willing to sacrifice their interests for lower beef prices before the election, and that there is no quick solution to high beef prices.

In ten major beef-producing states, Trump has seen a decline in approval ratings, according to Civiqs polling data from August 21 to September 21. "For Republicans, as a rule, our strongest voting bloc is the rural areas of the United States," Miller said, expressing concerns that tariffs, diesel, and fertilizer prices could lead to lost statewide races in Texas.

Fertilizer Costs

Steve Sheffels, president of the Montana Grain Growers Association, reported that approximately 40% of his expenses are for fertilizer. He expressed concern that the situation could become "dire" if prices continue to climb, stating that it's becoming difficult to produce crops profitably.

Sheffels cited an increase in starter fertilizer costs from $600 a ton last year to just under $1,000 a ton this past fall. The cost of fertilizer is closely linked to natural gas prices, a key component in nitrogen-based fertilizer production. Disruptions to natural gas exports due to the Iran war have contributed to price increases.

Data shows the price of anhydrous ammonia was up 9.3% and urea was up 7.9% from late February to late September, according to analytics company DTN.

Diesel Fuel Prices

The national average price for diesel fuel reached a record high of over $6.52 per gallon on September 22, according to the American Automobile Association. Trump signed an executive order to waive off-road requirements for tax-free diesel fuel, intended to reduce costs for farmers and truckers. The White House also announced Russia's agreement to supply over 300,000 tons of diesel fuel to the global market.

Prior to these actions, Trump had considered a diesel export ban but ruled it out on October 2 as the G7 nations committed to a coordinated release of diesel reserves through the International Energy Agency.

Farmers are grappling with increased diesel prices, which directly impact production costs for field operations, planting, harvesting, and transportation. In an August AP/KFF poll, 67% of rural voters expressed significant worry about gasoline or other transportation costs.

Rendel noted that diesel delivered to his farm last month cost over $5 a gallon, which he considers painful given the lower tax rate on farm diesel in the U.S. He believes significant relief is unlikely as long as the war continues.

Diesel is a critical and inflexible expense for farmers, used extensively in machinery for sowing and harvesting, as well as for transporting goods. Unlike other input costs, fuel consumption for essential operations remains constant.

Tariffs

Since returning to office, Trump has implemented tariffs that have led to retaliatory measures from countries including China and Canada. The renewed trade war with Canada has particularly concerned U.S. farmers, as Canada's retaliatory tariffs affect billions in U.S. imports, including agricultural equipment and other products.

"The U.S. and Canadian economies are highly integrated," said Peel. "There are no winners in trade wars in general and especially in this one with so many components that will be impacted."

Tariffs on key production inputs have cost crop farmers approximately $2.6 billion between February 2025 and July 2026, according to the Association of Equipment Manufacturers.

While China agreed to drop tariffs on various U.S. agricultural products following President Xi Jinping's visit in late September, soybeans were excluded and remain subject to a 10% tariff, providing limited relief to farmers.

Soybeans were the top U.S. agricultural export to China in 2025, but shipments significantly decreased between 2024 and 2025 amid Trump's tariffs. This pressure on export markets, combined with higher input costs, creates challenges throughout the supply chain.

Farmers describe the frequent policy shifts as disruptive. "The level of uncertainty that we've had to live with is completely unacceptable," said Sheffels. "It's impossible to make investment decisions when you don't know what the rules are going to be five minutes from now, let alone in six months."