The first mail-in ballots for midterm elections are beginning to be sent out, even as a federal legal battle over the U.S. Postal Service's role in processing these votes creates significant uncertainty for campaigns and voters alike. This legal limbo, fueled by President Donald Trump's long-standing efforts to influence the handling of mail-in ballots, has left campaign strategists from both parties grappling with how to advise constituents and allocate millions of dollars in resources.
For over a year, Trump has advocated for the Postal Service to play a new role in determining which mail-in ballots are counted, a process that experts suggest could lead to the disenfranchisement of many legitimate voters, disproportionately affecting Democrats. Last week, the Supreme Court issued an emergency order offering a procedural win for Trump's plan, but subsequent court actions have blocked it on its merits, intensifying the confusion about how votes will be processed in November.
Campaign consultants on both sides of the aisle have described the situation as "flying blind." One Republican consultant noted the difficulty in adapting to the legal uncertainty, calling it the "8 million-vote question." Democratic campaigns are particularly concerned about the risks of heavily relying on mail-in ballots, questioning whether to redirect funds from mail ballot outreach to in-person voting efforts.
Michael Waldman, president and CEO of the Brennan Center for Justice, a nonpartisan think tank, suggested that the urgency might be overstated for voters. "The court’s ruling was a procedural one, with a great deal of legal back and forth to come," Waldman stated. "The executive order is still illegal and still unconstitutional." He added, "For voters, so far, nothing has changed—and is unlikely to before Election Day."
Despite this reassurance for voters, the practical implications for campaign operations remain significant. Decisions on whether to encourage voters to request and return mail ballots, or to shift focus to early in-person voting and Election Day turnout efforts, are being debated intensely. A long-time Democratic campaign adviser described the situation as "not an easy conversation" with campaigns "operating on assumptions."
Republican campaigns face a different challenge, with some strategists advising local races to disregard the national debate to avoid alienating Trump. However, other GOP operatives question why campaigns would not "go after every vote on every day we can."
Mail-in voting has seen a steady increase, accounting for 29% of votes in 2024. While Democrats have historically voted by mail more frequently, a significant portion of Republicans also utilize this method. Trump himself has frequently promoted debunked theories of widespread election fraud, though in 2024, his advisers reportedly convinced him that discouraging mail-in voting was self-sabotaging. He has since wavered, casting his own ballot by mail in Florida's primary while continuing to criticize the process nationally.
The uncertainty surrounding mail-in ballots is expected to persist, leaving campaign managers with little time to finalize their strategies for maximizing voter turnout as key states like North Carolina begin sending out ballots this week.