Donald Trump's strategic hesitations and declining approval ratings are cited by some Republicans as factors contributing to the increased competitiveness of the Texas U.S. Senate race this fall, potentially enabling Democrats to win a statewide election in the state for the first time in over 30 years. Current polling suggests Democratic state representative James Talarico holds a slight lead over the Republican candidate, Attorney General Ken Paxton. Talarico has also significantly outraised Paxton, providing him with the financial resources to contest a statewide race in Texas, a scenario the Republican party had not anticipated.
Mark Jones, a political expert at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, characterized the contest as a "perfect storm" for Democrats, noting Trump's unpopularity, negative perceptions of the economy among Texans, and Paxton's significant liabilities as a candidate.
Trump's super PAC, MAGA Inc., possesses substantial financial reserves, yet Trump initially appeared reluctant to deploy these funds for Paxton's campaign. Sources familiar with Trump's thinking indicate he harbors doubts about the broader Republican midterm outlook and expressed concerns that campaign spending might be futile, a sentiment common when a president's party faces midterm losses. A senior Trump adviser suggested that the political operation has plans for significant spending but is withholding its strategy from public view.
Some aides also suggest Trump's caution in disbursing funds is a strategy to preserve capital for future political endeavors in 2028 and 2030, intending to maintain influence over the party post-presidency. One aide stated that Trump's focus is on maximizing his personal financial accounts for future possibilities, viewing the current midterms as potentially lost causes.
Following weeks of pressure from allies, MAGA Inc. committed $10 million on September 5th for advertising in Texas to support Paxton and criticize Talarico. During a recent Republican convention in Dallas, Trump endorsed Paxton, but his remarks also included criticisms of Paxton's appearance and performance.
This race, which Republicans had expected to win easily, has become one of the nation's most competitive and expensive. Steve Bannon, Trump's former chief strategist, warned of significant repercussions if Republicans lose control of the House and Senate, predicting increased investigations and subpoenas.
The Texas Senate race drew attention within Trump's political operation as early as late 2024. Then-incumbent John Cornyn, an ally of Senate Republican leadership, faced pressure from Trump, who was displeased with Cornyn's criticism of Trump's role in the January 6th events and his initial hesitation to endorse Trump during the presidential primary.
Despite Paxton's legal and personal challenges, including felony securities fraud charges, impeachment by the Texas House over alleged abuse of office, and accusations of adultery, he emerged as a key figure. Congressman Wesley Hunt attempted to position himself as a less-burdened alternative to Paxton, pitching himself to the White House in March 2025. Hunt argued that while Cornyn was unpopular with the base, Paxton's vulnerabilities would make a general election difficult.
Trump expressed reluctance to support Hunt, prioritizing Cornyn's Senate presence for his legislative agenda and judicial confirmations. While Trump's advisors recognized Paxton's liabilities, they viewed him as a loyal supporter. Trump's team reportedly considered offering Cornyn a post, but Cornyn intended to seek re-election.
Some of Trump's political operatives, including Chris LaCivita and pollster Tony Fabrizio, aligned with efforts to support Cornyn against Paxton, aiming to avoid a costly general election defense of the seat. However, these efforts did not sway Trump.
Hunt launched his campaign in October 2025 and continued to press his case. Polling indicated a close contest between Paxton, Cornyn, and Hunt, with Hunt performing well in hypothetical head-to-head matchups. Hunt's campaign shared these numbers with Trump's team, suggesting Hunt could defeat Paxton if Cornyn withdrew. These arguments were dismissed, though Cornyn's allies began targeting Hunt with significant spending.
As the March primary neared, LaCivita urged Trump to endorse Cornyn, but Trump remained hesitant, citing potential damage to his standing with the Republican base. Even after the primary advanced Cornyn and Paxton to a runoff, Senator John Thune reportedly spent considerable time trying to persuade Trump to endorse Cornyn. Trump eventually endorsed Paxton a week before the runoff, after Paxton had established a significant lead and Trump's pollsters indicated an endorsement would likely not save Cornyn.
Since then, Paxton has faced difficulties in fundraising for the general election. MAGA Inc., despite its substantial funds, had spent minimally on the race by late August, with its most notable expenditure supporting a different candidate. Elon Musk's super PAC has contributed approximately $1.6 million to Paxton's campaign, but his financial support is complicated by his involvement in AI data centers and H-1B visas, issues that have drawn criticism within Texas and from parts of the Republican base.
Trump recently committed $10 million to Texas for an ad buy, marking one of the campaign's first general-election expenditures. He publicly stated his intention to support Paxton and spend significant time in Texas.
The Senate Leadership Fund has invested $54 million to support Paxton, with its executive director affirming the party's commitment to keeping Texas Republican. During Trump's recent midterm convention in Texas, the hope was to generate momentum for Paxton. However, the event faced criticism for its high ticket prices and visible empty seats. Trump endorsed Paxton, promising to return to the state multiple times, but his remarks also included a critical assessment of Paxton's appearance and demeanor.