President Trump's approval rating among Hispanic voters has fallen to a record low of 24%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey, a significant drop from the nearly half of Latino voters who supported him in the 2024 presidential election. This shift in support could jeopardize Republican incumbents in four key midterm House races, particularly in districts with substantial Hispanic populations that previously voted for Trump.
A Pew Research Center analysis found that approximately a quarter of Hispanics who voted for Trump in 2024 now intend to vote against Republican House candidates in their districts. Despite this trend, about two-thirds of Hispanic Trump voters indicated they will still vote for Republican congressional candidates, while 11% plan to vote for Democratic candidates.
The potential impact of Trump's waning support among Hispanic voters is particularly pronounced in districts that voted for Trump in 2024, have large Latino populations, and feature GOP incumbents on the ballot for House races.
Jaime Florez, the Republican National Committee's Hispanic outreach and communications director, suggested that candidates are being realistic with voters by highlighting the perceived failures of Democratic governance in states like New York, California, and Illinois, and contrasting them with states like Florida or Texas. He also expressed skepticism about the accuracy of some polls.
California's 22nd Congressional District
Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) faces Democrat Randy Villegas in a district that is nearly 75% Hispanic and narrowly voted for Trump in 2024. Valadao, who is Portuguese, is in a challenging re-election bid in a district made more Democrat-friendly by redistricting. In the June primary, Valadao secured 40.7% of the vote, with Villegas receiving 32.4%.
The district is a key battleground where Villegas, the son of Mexican immigrants, is aiming to become the first Hispanic representative from the area.
Colorado's 8th Congressional District
Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Colo.) is running against Democrat Manny Rutinel and Libertarian David Wood. This district north of Denver has the largest Hispanic population of any congressional district in Colorado, with approximately 40% identifying as Hispanic. Trump won this district by just 2 percentage points in 2024.
Evans, whose grandparents were Mexican immigrants, has attempted to distance himself from Trump's immigration policies. He authored an op-ed supporting immigration reform with a pathway to legal status and previously wrote to Immigration and Customs Enforcement expressing concerns about the arrest of migrants without criminal records. Rutinel, whose mother is from the Dominican Republic, has focused his campaign on economic issues.
Florida's 27th Congressional District
Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) is in a competitive race against Democrat Eliott Rodriguez. The district is nearly 75% Hispanic and strongly favored Trump in 2024 by 15 percentage points. Salazar, who has received Trump's endorsement, has publicly stated that the president's immigration enforcement efforts have "gone too far" and warned that his Latino supporters "feel betrayed."
Both Salazar, the daughter of Cuban refugees, and Rodriguez, an ex-journalist of Cuban American heritage, are polling closely, with limited data suggesting an even race.
Texas' 15th Congressional District
Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas) is competing against Democrat Bobby Pulido in a district that spans from the U.S.-Mexico border up to San Antonio. The district is over 80% Hispanic and gave Trump an 18-point victory in 2024. De La Cruz flipped this historically Democrat-held seat in the 2022 midterms. Pulido, a Tejano music star, describes himself as a "conservative Democrat" and supports a "tough but fair" immigration system.