Donald Trump and the MAGA movement are experiencing a sharp decline in support from their most significant voter base, according to CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten. New polling data from Marquette University Law School indicates a dramatic shift in favorability among non-college adults, a demographic that formed the bedrock of Trump's electoral victories.
In October 2024, Trump held a net favorability rating of +6 points among non-college adults. However, the latest data from July shows this figure has plummeted to -22 points, a 28-point swing away from the former president and his movement. "The group in which the Trump movement was built upon, they are shifting away and saying, ‘We don’t like MAGA anymore,’" Enten stated.
This trend is particularly concerning for Trump given his reliance on this voter bloc in previous elections. Enten recalled that in the 2024 election, Trump won among non-college voters by 13 points, a performance he described as "very strong" and crucial to his victory, as college-educated voters were largely against him. The current data shows a significantly larger shift, with Trump's favorability among this group now at minus 19 points, representing a 32-point swing away from the former president.
The shift extends beyond presidential preference, impacting the Republican Party's standing as well. In the 2024 election cycle, non-college voters favored a GOP-led House by 13 points. Currently, Democrats hold a 1-point lead among this same group.
Enten emphasized the severity of this trend, stating, "This is why he’s in so much trouble. It’s not just that college voters are against Trump. Now it turns out that non-college voters, the ones that he built his presidential bid on, have waved, ‘Adios, goodbye, see you later, Mr. Trump — we don’t like you anymore.’" The analyst highlighted this plummeting support from Trump's key base as the most shocking trend, suggesting significant challenges for the Republican Party in upcoming elections.