Former President Donald Trump has reportedly urged Ukraine to stop striking Russian oil refineries, a proposition that experts suggest could significantly alter the dynamics of the ongoing conflict.
According to analysis, complying with Trump's request would likely necessitate a broad curtailment of attacks on Russia's energy sector, a move Ukraine has not indicated it is prepared to make. However, some analysts believe Ukraine could cease refinery strikes without abandoning its wider deep-strike capabilities.
"I would not say that halting refinery strikes would necessarily kneecap Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign," said one expert. "Ukraine still has other important targets inside Russia, including airfields, ammunition depots, missile and drone production facilities, and logistics hubs."
The more critical consideration, according to this analysis, is the potential consequence if Ukraine chooses to disregard Trump's suggestion.
While European partners have increasingly shouldered the burden of supporting Ukraine, demonstrating an ability to substitute a substantial portion of U.S. financial and military assistance, they have not eliminated Ukraine's reliance on certain American capabilities. This dependence is particularly noted in the area of Patriot missile interceptors, where European support can supplement, but not fully replace, U.S. contributions.
Many of the current diesel supply constraints are attributed to broader geopolitical factors, but heeding Trump's request could undermine Kyiv's strategy to exert pressure on Moscow through targeting its energy infrastructure.