President Donald Trump has been privately informed by key advisors, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, that the ongoing conflict with Iran could potentially last until Inauguration Day in January 2029. This assessment was presented during recent meetings with Trump in the Oval Office and the Situation Room, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.
This disclosure comes shortly after Trump's public assertion that the conflict would conclude swiftly after the November midterm elections, a claim based on his belief that Tehran could not sustain its resistance. For months, Iran has responded to U.S. pressure to abandon its nuclear program by disrupting passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transport. Recently, the U.S. has conducted military strikes targeting Iranian radar systems and other assets along the strait in an effort to protect oil tankers.
The volatility in oil markets has been palpable, with Brent crude reaching $101 per barrel on Thursday morning, its highest point since May, as traders anticipate further disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies. Economists have cautioned that a prolonged conflict could lead to sustained global oil market turmoil, potentially increasing prices for gasoline and consumer goods in the United States.
Earlier, the U.S. and Iran had agreed to a temporary ceasefire in June, but this arrangement dissolved weeks later when Washington resumed strikes, citing accusations of Iranian attacks on commercial vessels. Negotiations remain at an impasse, with President Trump unwilling to accept any deal that does not fully address his nuclear demands. Washington seeks Iran's cessation of its nuclear program and the handover of its enriched uranium stockpile. Tehran, conversely, has proposed joint control of the Strait of Hormuz and the imposition of tolls for tanker passage to compensate for damages from U.S. strikes.
In April, Trump implemented a naval blockade of Iranian ports aimed at pressuring Tehran's economy and compelling its leaders to re-engage in negotiations. Iranian crude oil exports through the Gulf have been halted since mid-July. However, Iran has continued to sell oil stored on tankers outside the blockade, utilizing land routes. Reports indicate that these reserves have diminished significantly, from approximately 90 million barrels to 29 million, and could be depleted as early as next month.