Trump Rallies in Republican-Leaning States Amid Midterm Push

As the midterm elections approach, former President Donald Trump is scheduled to headline rallies in Republican-leaning states. These appearances have prompted questions about whether he should be focusing on more competitive swing states. Some Republicans and experts suggest the strategy aims to boost turnout among Republican voters who may be less motivated to vote this year, noting that travel to reliably Republican areas during midterm cycles is not unprecedented.

Trump is slated to attend a "Midterm Rally" in Durant, Oklahoma, on Thursday, Oct. 1, and another in Mobile, Alabama, on Friday, Oct. 2. Both locations are in congressional districts and states considered to be Republican strongholds. For example, Durant is in Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District, which Trump won by over 50 percentage points in 2024 and is held by GOP Rep. Josh Brecheen. ABC News race ratings indicate this district, as well as statewide races for governor and Senate in Oklahoma, are expected to remain solidly Republican.

Mobil, located in Alabama's 1st Congressional District, has been redrawn to favor Republicans and would have supported Trump by approximately 40 points in 2024. The adjacent 2nd Congressional District, previously held by Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures, now leans Republican post-redistricting, although Figures intends to contest the seat. Alabama's statewide Senate and governor races are rated as solid Republican.

Later in October, Trump is scheduled to hold rallies in Ohio, Iowa, and Nebraska, states that voted for him in 2024 but are hosting competitive Senate races. Trump stated that these events are to support "great people" running in those races and criticized Democratic candidates.

Democrats, however, interpret Trump's focus on red states as a sign of Republican anxiety. Former Sen. Doug Jones, a Democratic gubernatorial candidate, argued that Republicans are concerned about their prospects in states like Alabama, which he contends is no longer a "firewall" for the party.

Conversely, the Republican National Committee (RNC) suggests that these rallies will benefit the GOP more broadly by potentially boosting turnout in neighboring media markets in Texas and Florida. An RNC official noted the party's financial resources and stated goal of driving voters to the polls.

Kyle Kondik, an elections analyst, expressed skepticism about the media market argument for the Oklahoma and Alabama events, questioning why Trump would not simply campaign in Texas and Florida if that were the objective.

Republican strategist Ryan Mahoney believes Trump's travel to red states is intended to energize base voters who may be disengaged, citing issues like the rising cost of living that have affected Republican voter enthusiasm. However, Mahoney also suggested that focusing on competitive races would be a more beneficial strategy for the party.

Matthew Dallek, a political historian, acknowledged Trump's capacity to mobilize voters who might not typically participate in elections. However, he also pointed to Trump's low national approval ratings, which a recent CNN poll placed at 33% approval and 67% disapproval, as a potential reason for avoiding more competitive areas due to a perceived "toxic" brand.

Dallek also noted that presidential travel to "safe" states during midterm election cycles is not unprecedented. He cited examples such as President Barack Obama's rallies in Los Angeles and Maryland in 2010, and President George W. Bush's rallies in Indiana and Georgia in 2006, as historical precedents for presidents visiting reliably supportive areas when their party faces challenges in midterms.