President Donald Trump is heading to Texas on Thursday to support Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, who is currently trailing Democrat James Talarico in both polls and fundraising ahead of the midterm elections. Trump will attend a fundraiser aimed at bolstering GOP finances in the closely watched race.
Trump previously endorsed Paxton in the Republican primary, where Paxton faced off against Sen. John Cornyn. As of the end of June, Paxton's campaign account held close to $2 million, while Talarico had approximately $21 million. Recent polls, including one from the University of Texas and Texas Politics Project, indicate Talarico holds a slim lead, with 42% support compared to Paxton's 39%. However, 14% of voters remain undecided, leaving the outcome uncertain.
Trump won Texas by 11 points in the 2024 presidential election. He has characterized Talarico as out of step with the state, labeling him a vegan and attempting to link him to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, a characterization Talarico denies. Talarico's campaign is focusing on themes of Christian faith and grassroots populism.
Democrats view this contest as a critical opportunity to regain control of the Senate, though the party has not held a Senate seat in Texas since 1993. The Cook Political Report has classified the race as a "tossup," a designation last seen for a Texas Senate race in 2018 when Republican Ted Cruz narrowly defeated Democrat Beto O'Rourke by approximately 2.5 percentage points.
Paxton's past legal challenges are a focal point for Democrats. The Texas Attorney General was indicted on securities fraud charges in 2015 and faced an impeachment effort in 2023 over allegations of obstructing justice in that case. His former wife also cited infidelity in their divorce following revelations of his affairs.
Both parties are heavily invested in the outcome. Republicans are particularly keen on seeing Trump leverage his influence and his base of supporters to drive voter turnout. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that Trump is committed to supporting Republican candidates throughout the midterm campaign, noting his political arm, MAGA Inc., has a substantial war chest of $850 million, a portion of which he intends to use to aid Republican candidates.
Trump is scheduled to return to Texas next month for the GOP midterm convention in Dallas on September 9 and 10.