To achieve a deal that would reopen the economically vital Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump may need to make compromises, a prospect that could be difficult for the president.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil normally flows, has been a central point of contention following the war with Iran. While both the U.S. and Iran indicate a deal is nearing, the Trump administration has expressed opposition to any arrangement that would solidify Iran's control over the waterway, including the possibility of Iran levying fees.
Iran, however, has maintained that the strait will not return to its pre-war status as an open international waterway and insists on some measure of control. Despite numerous U.S. strikes, Iran retains the capability to target vessels with drones and missiles, posing a threat to commercial shipping.
Experts suggest that the economic pressure resulting from the conflict might prompt Trump to compromise on the issue of the strait, despite potential significant implications for global trade. "This is a concession he may very well be willing to make," said David Schenker, a former State Department official.
President Trump has publicly stated that the U.S. military possesses "massive amounts" of weapons and that more are being manufactured, pushing back against reports of dwindling stockpiles following the conflict with Iran. He also claimed that his polling numbers are at their highest ever. However, polling from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research indicated that about two-thirds of U.S. adults do not believe the war with Iran has been worthwhile.
Trump has also asserted that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to commercial shipping, pointing to naval blockades of Iranian ports. "But they can always shoot something, they always have something or drop a mine," Trump said regarding Iran's capabilities, noting that a single mine could deter shipping. Recent maritime data indicates at least two ships were impacted in the strait within the past week, with several others reporting near misses or warnings.
Despite the challenges, U.S. and Iranian officials are reportedly close to an agreement to reopen the strait. The U.S. military maintains that the strait is open via a U.S.-overseen route near Oman's coast. According to a U.S. official speaking anonymously, any temporary routes established through the waterway will not involve tolls or other impediments, and diplomacy remains the preferred U.S. approach.