Trump, Iran Agree on One Thing: Election Isn't Driving War Decisions
Both sides insist that the upcoming U.S. election is not influencing their strategies in the seven-month conflict, despite its impact on American voters and Tehran's economy.
President Donald Trump and Iran's leadership appear to agree on one point regarding their seven-month conflict: the U.S. election calendar is not a motivating factor in their decisions about the war. This stance persists despite the war's influence on American public opinion and the significant economic strain it has placed on Iran.
Persistent inflation and high gas prices, exacerbated by the conflict, have led to widespread American disapproval of the war, casting a shadow over the upcoming November 3 election. Simultaneously, U.S. economic sanctions and a naval blockade targeting Iranian oil have created profound economic shocks for Tehran.
Iranian officials maintain that a resolution is contingent on the U.S. lifting the blockade and providing sanctions relief. President Trump, meanwhile, has presented a shifting strategy, deploying additional military resources to the region and issuing threats of renewed strikes, while also stating that the U.S. "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior" to the election.
During his campaign appearances, Trump has reiterated this message, asserting to voters that he is winning the war and warning of decisive action if Iran does not capitulate. "I will tell you what: Iran will be very quick one way or the other," Trump said recently. "Either they give us everything, or they don’t exist any longer."
Trump's stated war aims in Iran have evolved throughout the conflict, moving from demands for unconditional surrender to a focus on economic pressure, containing Tehran's nuclear program, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's economy has suffered significantly, with its navy and air force depleted and key leaders killed in the initial weeks of the conflict. Despite this, Iran has demonstrated resilience, with Trump repeatedly backing down from ordering large-scale strikes.
According to Sasan Karimi, a former Iranian government official, the American election season is not fundamentally altering Iran's approach to dealing with Trump, whom they perceive as an unreliable figure. Karimi added that Iran's leadership is concerned that the U.S., particularly under Trump, may not adhere to any agreement even if signed.
Trump's rhetoric presents a challenge for Republican candidates, many of whom are attempting to distance themselves from his handling of the war. A recent Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll indicated that 69% of Americans believe the war has not been worth fighting, with only 28% approving of Trump's handling of Iran policy.
Some Republican candidates in competitive races have voiced opposition to the ongoing conflict. However, Christopher Borick, director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory, suggests that separating from Trump on this issue so close to Election Day will be extremely difficult for Republicans.
Negotiations appeared to stall after Trump publicly rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for certain conditions. However, Iran has since reported receiving a U.S. counterproposal, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicated that Tehran would respond within days. Trump described the indirect negotiations as "productive."
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has expressed a desire to return to a framework similar to a short-lived June deal that promised financial relief for Iran, though he also voiced skepticism about the process. Iranian officials assert that the U.S. must lift its blockade before Iran will cease attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
Mohsen Rezaei, a former Revolutionary Guard commander, stated that "America, you have to act first. Enough talking, enough negotiations." Some Iranian analysts believe a return to full-scale war may be inevitable, despite ongoing indirect talks.
Trump has cited an increase in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz as evidence that Iran's leadership will soon concede. U.S. Central Command has been escorting oil tankers through the strait, though Iran has recently increased attacks on these vessels. Shipping analysts note that operators willing to navigate the risks are charging substantial fees.
The situation has been further complicated by a Saudi-led campaign in Yemen aimed at dislodging Iran-backed Houthi rebels from the Bab el-Mandeb strait, another critical trade route. The Houthis have responded with attacks on Saudi infrastructure.
Trump maintains that the U.S. naval blockade is pushing Iran's leadership toward capitulation. Iran's oil minister recently resigned, and the national currency continues to devalue. Iranian leaders appear confident in their ability to withstand military pressure and impose costs on the global economy, according to Karimi.
Hamzeh Safavi, a political scientist at the University of Tehran, suggested that Iranian officials are not giving significant weight to the U.S. midterm elections in their strategic calculations, believing that fundamental confrontation with Iran is a bipartisan view in the U.S.