President Donald Trump has declared the nuclear deal with Iran effectively over, accusing Tehran of consistently lying and cheating as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) emerges as a dominant force in negotiations. The escalating tensions come as uncertainty grows over who in Tehran holds the authority to finalize an agreement, particularly after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
"I don’t know if we’re going to have a deal. We may just do it without a deal," Trump stated at the NATO summit in Ankara. "These people, they lie and they cheat."
Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father as supreme leader following the elder Khamenei's death in U.S.-Israeli attacks on February 28. However, Mojtaba has not been publicly visible, and U.S. assessments suggest authority is now dispersed among senior IRGC commanders and powerful civilian officials.
Shifting Power Dynamics in Tehran
Banafsheh Zand, an Iranian-American journalist, noted that power within the Islamic Republic has fractured since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death, consolidating the IRGC's position. "The person who is negotiating with the U.S. is not necessarily someone who is endorsed by the others," Zand told Fox News Digital. She identified Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former IRGC commander, as one power center, competing with figures like IRGC commander-in-chief Ahmad Vahidi, Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani, and former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.
Vahidi oversees the IRGC's military structure, while Qaani manages its external operations. Zarif remains linked to a more accommodationist political faction. "The hardliners, in terms of their political presence, have also been pushed aside," Zand added. "So really, it’s the IRGC. And within the IRGC, whoever signs the deal is not necessarily signing on behalf of everybody else. They’re signing on behalf of themselves."
This division raises concerns in Washington about whether Iranian negotiators can commit the broader security establishment to an agreement, leading to potential discrepancies in interpretation and implementation.
Deliberate Escalation and Strategic Leverage
Experts suggest that Iran's recent escalations, including attacks on commercial shipping, are a deliberate strategy to gain leverage and distract from domestic crises. Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, stated that Iran's leaders likely believe escalation is essential for the survival of the Islamic Republic.
"This is a regime that is weaker, but lethal, and less capable, but more confident," Ben Taleblu said. He posited that Iran believes its adversaries have vulnerable interests throughout the Gulf, while the regime is more willing to accept destruction. "Their survival and their military success and their political success runs through more, not less, escalation."
Lisa Daftari, foreign policy analyst and editor-in-chief of The Foreign Desk, agreed that the escalation aims to turn regional instability into leverage. "By targeting commercial shipping and Arab states, the regime is signaling that it can hold global energy flows and America’s regional partners hostage to extract leverage, distract from its domestic crisis, and test U.S. red lines," Daftari told Fox News Digital. She suggested Tehran is betting that Washington and its partners will avoid sustained conflict.
Daftari described the regime's core weapon as time, creating rolling crises that increase the cost of confrontation while consolidating power domestically. She characterized this strategy as consistent with the Islamic Republic's hardline, revolutionary nature.
Disputed Interpretations of Agreements
The dispute over the Strait of Hormuz highlights the differing interpretations of agreements. A source familiar with the issue indicated that Tehran and Washington have fundamentally different understandings of Clause five of a memorandum concerning safe passage. Iran interprets the clause as giving it authority to coordinate shipping and determine routes, while Washington understands it as an agreement to fully reopen the international waterway.
"When the two sides have different interpretations of a single page, how do they intend to write a treaty?" the source questioned. Control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz is considered one of Iran's last major sources of leverage over the U.S., Gulf governments, and the global economy.
Experts believe Iran is unlikely to cease escalation, even if negotiations resume. The IRGC may continue targeting commercial shipping and U.S. interests to preserve leverage and strengthen its domestic position, reflecting a strategy of "more, not less, escalation" and deliberately "playing out the clock."