President Donald Trump has declared the ceasefire with Iran over and ordered new military strikes, stating he is unsure about pursuing a deal and suggesting the U.S. should "finish the job." These actions and his shifting rhetoric have raised questions about the future of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, occurring weeks after diplomatic efforts aimed at reaching an initial agreement.
The president warned Wednesday that a new round of U.S. attacks was imminent, though he also downplayed suggestions of a return to full-scale war. Hours later, the military announced it was conducting strikes intended to "further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz."
"Anything that happens is going to happen very fast," Trump said. "We’re not looking for a long time."
Some observers suggest this mixed messaging could be a negotiating tactic aimed at increasing pressure on Tehran to halt attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and to curb its nuclear program. This approach mirrors previous attempts by the Trump administration. However, whether intended as a negotiation tactic or a signal of escalation, the actions risk further inflaming tensions and could impact the upcoming midterm elections, particularly if gas prices remain high.
Mediators are actively working to salvage the interim deal. A regional intelligence official involved in these efforts described the conflict as reaching a critical stage with rising mutual mistrust but confirmed that high-level, round-the-clock communications are ongoing to preserve the ceasefire. Leading these mediation efforts are the foreign ministers of Pakistan and Qatar, along with Egypt's intelligence chief, with involvement from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi Arabian leaders.
The U.S. is reportedly concerned about attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and accuses Iran of delaying discussions on its nuclear program, which was a key next step toward a lasting resolution. Iran, however, claims Washington is violating the agreement concerning the strait and failing to ensure a ceasefire in Lebanon, including an Israeli withdrawal.
Michael Eisenstadt, director of Military and Security Studies at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, stated that despite the president's public comments, the situation remains a negotiation. "This is part of negotiating, and declaring that the MOU is over is part of the negotiation as well," Eisenstadt said, referring to the memorandum of understanding that formed the basis of the ceasefire.
Trump, however, has been explicit, stating, "I think it's over." He added, "We can play games, but I’m not sure I want to make a deal," and suggested the U.S. military might "just finish the job."
Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf countered that the Trump administration had repeatedly violated the terms of the initial pact, compelling Iran to respond. "The era of bullying and extortion is over. It leads nowhere. We don’t fold," Qalibaf posted on X.
Pakistan, which helped broker the ceasefire, has urged both sides to uphold their commitments, stating that renewed conflict is in "no one’s interest." Its foreign ministry emphasized that "There is no alternative to continued engagement, dialogue and diplomacy to achieve shared goal of peace in the region."
Trump has also made sharply contrasting public statements about Iran's leadership, recently dismissing them as "scum" and "sick people" after previously describing them as "very rational" and "nice to deal with."
Vice President JD Vance noted that Iran was "well behaved for about a week" after the initial deal but has since resumed attacks. "If they shoot at ships, we’re going to knock the hell out of them," Vance stated.
Prior to the initial two-week ceasefire in April, Trump issued intensified threats, including bombing Iranian infrastructure. He reiterated dire warnings before the tentative 60-day deal was reached last month.
Trump's strategy of negotiating from a position of strength, potentially using new strikes for leverage, carries risks. Unequivocally declaring the ceasefire over could also free up Iran militarily, potentially leading to renewed volatility in oil prices and financial markets. Ali Vaez, Iran director at the International Crisis Group, cautioned that escalating threats could be a dangerous maneuver, as a pressure campaign might develop its own momentum and lead to the war it aimed to prevent. However, Vaez also noted that Iran has strong incentives to return to negotiations due to its need for economic relief promised under the interim deal.
Trump's signals regarding the economic fallout have also been mixed. He has previously asserted that rising gas prices were not a factor in his Iran policy, yet also cited the avoidance of an "economic catastrophe" as a reason for agreeing to the interim deal, subsequently touting falling oil prices. He has also resumed past threats to strike civilian infrastructure and seize Iran's oil hub, Kharg Island.
With the midterm elections approaching, a rise in oil prices due to increased uncertainty about the conflict could lead to higher prices at the pump for Americans. Trump attempted to downplay these concerns, suggesting prices would only increase slightly, though he acknowledged the broader economic impact of oil prices.