Former President Donald Trump confirmed Monday that he possesses knowledge of the locations of remaining leaders within Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), but indicated he would not publicly disclose this information. Trump's comments came as a maritime blockade against Iran was reinstated following attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
When asked by Fox Business correspondent Edward Lawrence on July 13 if the U.S. or Israeli military could locate and target the lower echelons of the IRGC leadership, Trump responded affirmatively, stating, "Yeah, I do, but we don’t want to talk about that." He added, "But we certainly are watching, yeah. I know a lot about that subject. I know a lot, but I don’t think it’s appropriate to talk about it right now."
The reinstatement of the blockade follows actions by the Iranian regime, which has torn up a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that had previously provided Iran with oil revenue. The regime's renewed aggression includes firing on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Expert Analysis on Regime Instability
Eli Lake, a national security reporter, concurred with Trump's cautious approach, suggesting on July 14 that expecting the Iranian populace to revolt mere months after a significant crackdown is unrealistic. Lake noted that historical patterns of regime collapse often involve internal divisions within the security forces. He explained that lower-level security personnel or military cadres may eventually refuse to participate in state-sanctioned violence, leading to potential shifts in power.
"When that begins, it can accelerate quickly," Lake said, referring to the possibility of internal dissent within Iran's security apparatus.
Following strikes on February 28 that reportedly devastated the first and second tiers of Iranian leadership, Ahmad Vahidi emerged to command the IRGC. Trump has previously characterized Iran as a nation harboring a "cancerous" regime. The lifting of the blockade, a key concession made in the MOU, had provided Iran with a lifeline of oil revenue. With the blockade now back in effect and renewed air campaigns potentially increasing, Iran's economy is expected to face further strain.
Iranians are aware of the regime's actions, though public dissent is suppressed. Analysts suggest that a fracturing within the IRGC, potentially initiated by a few officers unwilling to continue the current path, could accelerate the regime's downfall. Such a scenario could lead to a shift in governance, potentially moving away from the current theological rule towards a more conventional military junta.
The intelligence communities of the U.S. and its allies are reportedly gathering continuous information on the situation within Iran. The comprehensive intelligence available on February 28, according to the notes, suggests allies possessed sufficient data to inform their actions, and this collection effort continues daily.