Trump Claims 'Energy Ceasefire' Between Russia and Ukraine, Offers Deal on Diesel
The former president's announcement on social media came amid his ongoing criticism of Ukraine's actions and the U.S. energy crisis.
Former President Donald Trump claimed Sunday that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to an "energy ceasefire," a day after he asserted that Kyiv was responsible for driving up U.S. fuel prices.
"Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine," Trump posted on Truth Social. "Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!" He did not provide further details about the supposed agreement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Axios that the ceasefire "was news for me" and confirmed that Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure continued Sunday. He later posted on X that Ukraine "supports the ceasefire, and it’s important for Russia to support it as well." Zelensky offered a similar response when Trump made an unsubstantiated announcement of a ceasefire on September 14, after which both countries continued to strike energy facilities.
Trump has repeatedly urged Zelensky to stop targeting Russian oil refineries, blaming Ukraine for contributing to global diesel shortages. He has also falsely implied this is a primary factor in the current crisis, while experts point to the U.S. war with Iran and blockades on the Strait of Hormuz as the main drivers of the shortage.
On October 10, Trump suggested Zelensky should be replaced if he could not make a deal to end the war, advising him again to "do what you want" to Russia but "don't hit refineries."
These comments followed Trump's announcement on October 9 that Russia had agreed to supply global markets with over 4.8 million tons of diesel, promising "record numbers" and "fast" decreases in prices for Americans and the world.
Impact on Fuel Prices
Trump has focused on American fuel prices in the weeks leading up to the midterm elections. According to AAA, the average price for a gallon of diesel fuel in the U.S. was $6.28 as of October 11, a slight decrease from its September 22 peak of $6.53, but still significantly higher than the $3.67 per gallon price approximately one year prior.
Experts express skepticism about the immediate impact of Russian fuel on U.S. prices. Michael Noel, a professor of economics at Texas Tech University, stated that the supply shortage caused by the Strait of Hormuz shutdown is too significant and that diesel prices will largely fluctuate based on developments there.
Jeff Colgan, a professor of political science at Brown University, questioned the assumption that Russia would adhere to Trump's timeline, even if an agreement was made. "I’m skeptical about the deal on multiple levels: Does Trump’s description reflect Putin’s understanding? Assuming Putin promised anything, will Russia actually implement it?" he asked.
A Pew Research Center survey released on October 8 found that 74% of U.S. adults were very concerned about energy prices, with 84% of registered voters considering the economy very important to their vote.
Trump's efforts to address fuel prices also include pushing the G7 countries to release 100 million barrels of oil and fuel products and signing an executive order on October 5 to temporarily allow tax-free, red-dyed diesel for broader use.
However, Olena Lennon, a practitioner in residence of National Security at the University of New Haven, described the announced amounts of Russian diesel as "minuscule" compared to daily U.S. consumption, arguing that these measures are temporary fixes with limited effect.
Implications for Ukraine and Sanctions
The diesel deal was accompanied by a temporary license from the U.S. Treasury Department allowing transactions involving Russian-origin diesel until April 2027. This has raised questions about compliance with a 2022 law banning Russian energy imports, which requires certification of Russia's withdrawal from Ukraine.
Zelensky called the decision "weak," asserting it would provide Putin with revenue to fund the war more aggressively. "Every dollar paid for Russian oil is money for the war," he said on X in April.
Lennon believes that easing restrictions on Russian diesel sales could undercut Ukraine's efforts to pressure Russia through its energy sector and weaken its negotiating position. She argues that such moves could undermine U.S. credibility with allies and potentially empower Putin to prolong the war, signaling that concessions can be extracted from Washington without offering value in return.