Trump Blames Ukraine for Global Diesel Price Hikes, Citing Refinery Attacks

Former US President Donald Trump has attributed the global rise in diesel prices to Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries, stating that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is "making problems for the world." Trump suggested Zelensky "had better damn well stop" and called for a new Ukrainian leader capable of reaching a deal.

However, analysis of global diesel exports indicates that while both the conflict in Ukraine and the US-Iran war have significantly impacted supply, the reduction in refined fuel exports from the Gulf states due to the conflict with Iran has been greater.

What's happened to global diesel prices? The rising cost of diesel affects not only individual drivers but also the broader economy, as the fuel powers essential logistics such as trucks, vans, and ships. Increased transportation costs can lead to higher consumer prices.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, average US retail diesel prices reached $6.20 per gallon in early October, nearing a record high. This is a substantial increase from approximately $3.50 per gallon before the conflict with Iran escalated. In the UK, average diesel prices have also touched record highs, reaching 199 pence per liter in early October.

Global diesel exports, which constitute about a quarter of worldwide consumption, fell from approximately 6.8 million barrels per day in 2025 to 5.8 million barrels per day by September 2026, a decline of roughly one million barrels daily. While some countries, including the US, have increased their diesel exports over the past year, the net global decrease in exports has been a key factor driving up retail prices.

How much supply has been lost from Russia? Russian diesel exports have seen a substantial decrease, falling from around 810,000 barrels per day in 2025 to approximately 140,000 barrels per day by September 2026, a reduction of about 670,000 barrels daily. Ukraine's ongoing strikes on Russian refineries are a primary reason for this drop.

How much supply has been lost from the Middle East? The Middle East, a major hub for diesel production, experienced a significant decline in its export volumes. In 2025, Gulf states—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman—were exporting about 1.4 million barrels of diesel per day. By September 2026, this figure had fallen to around 670,000 barrels per day.

This sharp decrease is largely attributed to the US-Iran conflict's disruption of refined diesel exports from the Gulf states navigating the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian strikes on tankers and a US blockade of Iranian ports have impacted traffic through this critical waterway. Although crude oil flows through the strait have largely recovered due to US naval protection, the export of refined diesel from the Middle East remains well below pre-conflict levels.

So which conflict is more to blame? Data indicates that the conflict involving Iran has had a more substantial impact on the global decrease in diesel export volumes compared to the war in Ukraine. Exports from Russia have fallen by roughly 670,000 barrels a day, while those from the Middle East have decreased by approximately 810,000 barrels a day. Analysts emphasize that both conflicts are significant contributors to the current market conditions.

"The US-Iran conflict delivered a major shock to global energy markets in 2026, but the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is now amplifying this pressure by taking Russian refineries offline," stated Paul de Leeuw, director of the Energy Transition Institute at Robert Gordon University. Rory Johnson, an oil analyst at Commodity Context, echoed this sentiment, noting that Ukraine's attacks are "bringing the pain of the war to the Russian homeland and largely knocking the world's second-largest diesel exporter out of the market."