Trump Advisers See Potential Middle East Agenda Gains If Netanyahu Loses

President Trump's Middle East agenda could see new opportunities even if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu loses Tuesday's election, according to advisers familiar with the matter. Should Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for nearly two decades across multiple terms, be ousted, his potential successors might be more inclined to align closely with Washington, US officials told Axios.

This assessment emerges as Israelis head to the polls on October 27, with recent polling indicating Netanyahu's coalition may struggle to secure the parliamentary majority required to form a government. The prospect of progress on Trump's Middle East agenda in a changed political landscape arises despite President Trump's recent public endorsement of Netanyahu, who trails challenger Gadi Eisenkot in some polls.

Trump publicly supported Netanyahu on Sunday, referring to him as a "Great Warrior Prime Minister, and an even greater Partner for Peace in combatting the Islamic Republic of Iran." This endorsement highlights the complex dynamics, as some of Trump's senior advisors have reportedly expressed dissatisfaction with Netanyahu over key regional priorities in recent months.

According to Axios, US envoy to Syria Tom Barrack has voiced concerns about Israel's military operations in Syria. Similarly, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff have reportedly been frustrated by what they perceive as Netanyahu's hesitation to advance Trump's peace plan. One Trump advisor described Netanyahu as "the devil he knows," acknowledging their long working relationship throughout Trump's presidency.

Following the Israeli elections, Trump may face a significant decision regarding potential joint military operations against Iran. US intelligence agencies have warned of escalating threats from Iran in the region, with US warships, including two aircraft carrier strike groups, positioned to respond to potential escalations.

An earlier joint US-Israeli attack on Iran in February led to a rise in oil prices, which presented challenges for Trump in the lead-up to the November 3 midterm elections. However, Trump has maintained that these actions significantly set back Iran's nuclear ambitions.

The endorsement of Netanyahu also allows Trump to claim credit should he win the election. Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israeli military chief, has emphasized the strong relationship between the United States and Israel in recent statements and has spoken positively about Trump's regional initiatives.

Vice President JD Vance notably did not explicitly endorse Netanyahu in a recent interview. Vance stated his focus is on endorsing American candidates in the midterm elections. Trump later commented on Vance's stance, indicating it was Vance's decision.