The Trump administration's new agreement between Israel and Lebanon is designed to test whether a broader U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding can prevent further regional conflict, according to a U.S. government official.
The deal permits the Israeli Defense Forces to remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) can manage the threat posed by the group. This provision, the official stated, reinforces Lebanese sovereignty as envisioned in the U.S.-Iran MOU.
"The Trump Administration is working to achieve a sovereign Lebanon that isn’t being threatened internally by Hezbollah, and Hezbollah cannot use southern Lebanon to pose a threat to neighbors," the official said. The critical challenge now lies in whether the LAF can disarm Hezbollah and dismantle its infrastructure in a manner conducive to lasting stability.
This arrangement has emerged as an early point of contention between Washington and Tehran, centering on differing interpretations of Lebanese sovereignty. Iran contends that "sovereignty" implies an immediate Israeli withdrawal, while the U.S. argues it means supporting Lebanon's efforts to curb Hezbollah.
Iran, the primary supporter of Hezbollah, rejects the U.S. interpretation. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated last month that the Israel-Lebanon agreement itself contradicts the U.S.-Iran MOU, asserting that the conflict is not fully resolved without Israeli forces withdrawing from occupied territories.
The U.S. maintains that the agreement reflects the decisions of two sovereign nations, Israel and Lebanon, rather than terms dictated by Tehran. This perspective frames Iran's objections as a challenge to the very Lebanese sovereignty the MOU aims to uphold.
The core of the disagreement is not merely semantic. If Iran pressures Hezbollah to reject the arrangement and escalate attacks on Israel, it could undermine the fragile ceasefire and potentially draw the U.S. back into conflict.
The agreement stipulates that the LAF will gradually assume responsibility for combating Hezbollah in two "pilot zones" in southern Lebanon, areas currently targeted by the IDF. Lebanese officials and LAF members are reportedly eager to move forward, though the official acknowledged the difficulty of confronting a group as deeply integrated into Lebanese institutions as Hezbollah.
"Nobody is under any illusion that it’s going to be easy because of how deeply Hezbollah is integrated into some of the country’s institutions," the official said. The success of the operation hinges on the Lebanese army's ability to disarm Hezbollah without direct Israeli military intervention, a task it has struggled with for decades.
The launch of the pilot zones, initially expected late last month, was delayed to allow Israel and Lebanon to establish joint monitoring mechanisms. These mechanisms are intended to verify the LAF's control over the zones and prevent Hezbollah's re-entry.
The pilot zones will serve as a test not only of the LAF's capability to prevent Hezbollah's resurgence but also of the Lebanese government's ability to provide security and improve the quality of life for residents through investment and infrastructure rebuilding.
Ensuring the success of the Lebanese takeover is considered more important than expediting the process. The official warned that an "artificial timeline for withdrawal that doesn’t actually address the core issues will almost certainly allow Hezbollah to reconstitute in the South."
The ultimate goal, the official added, is for Israel and Lebanon to collaborate, allowing them as sovereign nations to control the outcome rather than empower Iran to dictate terms. The reaction of Hezbollah remains a significant uncertainty. If the Iranian-backed group chooses to engage in hostilities rather than stand down, months of diplomatic efforts could be jeopardized, potentially pushing the region to the brink of wider conflict. "How Hezbollah reacts is a wild card," the official concluded.