The Trump administration is moving forward with a plan to significantly alter the once-a-decade U.S. Census, potentially excluding millions of immigrants based on their status and removing key racial and ethnic data. These proposed changes could jeopardize the accurate allocation of federal resources and impact the country's political representation.
The administration's proposals, announced Wednesday, would exclude undocumented immigrants, asylum seekers, and individuals without permanent legal status from the census count. Additionally, the census may eliminate certain demographic questions traditionally included on the questionnaire, such as those related to race and ethnicity. The U.S. Census Bureau argued on the Federal Register that individuals lacking permanent status should not be included in the apportionment count, as they are not considered "true inhabitants" with a "usual residence" or allegiance to the United States.
The agency also suggested that the census should be "colorblind" and not include questions about personal characteristics like race, and is considering removing questions for individuals identifying as part of the LGBTQ+ community.
These potential changes have raised concerns among data researchers and advocacy groups. Beth Jarosz, a data researcher and vice president of the Association of Public Data Users, described the proposals as "unprecedented" and stated that excluding residents would harm data quality. "Not counting all of the people who reside here is actually where the real threat is," Jarosz said, emphasizing the broad uses of census data.
Census figures are historically used for apportionment to determine each state's number of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and, consequently, their votes in the Electoral College. Jarosz warned that undercounts or miscounts could dilute political power and representation.
Historically, the decennial census has not focused on citizenship status, although such data may appear in the Census Bureau's American Community Survey. Accurate counts of immigrants across different statuses are vital for distributing resources during public health emergencies or disasters. "If you don't have a count of everyone who's there, you're not going to have the resources you need," Jarosz noted, adding that this lack of data puts everyone at risk.
Race and ethnicity questions have been part of the census since 1790. Since 2000, the census has allowed individuals to identify with more than one race. Data from a 2015 Pew Research Center study indicated that the multiracial population was growing three times faster than the general population. By 2020, 33.8 million people identified as multiracial, according to census data.
Manjusha Kulkarni, co-founder of Stop AAPI Hate and executive director of AAPI Equity Alliance, highlighted the significant impact these changes would have on the populations her organizations serve. She stated via text message that excluding demographic data would prevent lawmakers, healthcare providers, public safety officials, and community advocates from accessing necessary information to ensure the health, safety, and well-being of all Americans. Kulkarni added that dropping race and ethnicity data, along with excluding certain immigrants, sends a message that these communities are not valued.
Jarosz likened the prospect of collecting data for the 2030 Census with these omissions to attempting to navigate an airplane in dense fog with a obscured windshield and malfunctioning instruments.