Tropical Storm Threatens US Gulf Coast with Heavy Rains and Flooding
Forecasters warn of a high likelihood that a low-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico will organize into Tropical Storm Isaias this week, bringing potential impacts to multiple states.
A potential tropical storm has emerged just off the U.S. Gulf Coast, prompting flood alerts for millions of people across three states. Forecasters warn there is a high likelihood that a large, low-pressure area just south of Texas will organize into Tropical Storm Isaias this week.
The storm is expected to impact Gulf states including Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida. Heavy rain, thunderstorms, and floods are also anticipated to spread into Georgia, the Carolinas, and further north. Tropical moisture moving from the Gulf of Mexico has already been feeding storms across the U.S., triggering flood watches from the National Weather Service (NWS) on Monday.
Over four million Americans across the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and Georgia have been warned to expect several inches of rain through Monday evening, potentially leading to dangerous flash floods. Up to eight inches of rain are predicted for northern Florida between Monday and Wednesday, preceding the potential formation of Tropical Storm Isaias in the Gulf.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) currently indicates a 70 percent chance of a tropical cyclone forming this week, with AccuWeather anticipating this development between Wednesday and Friday. If it forms, this would be the first tropical system to impact the U.S. mainland since Edouard made landfall on the Gulf Coast on September 1.
Urgent alerts have also been issued to boats traveling along the Florida coast near Tallahassee, warning of waterspouts forming in the Gulf during the severe storms expected throughout the day. The NWS stated, "Thunderstorms can produce sudden waterspouts. Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Seek safe harbor immediately."
While no hurricane has formed in the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf this year, a storm becoming a hurricane would set a record for the latest date of the first hurricane of the year. However, forecasters believe it is unlikely the cyclone will strengthen to hurricane status. AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski noted that while Gulf waters are warm, "stronger wind shear farther north across the Gulf may limit development potential."
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane expert Alex DaSilva stated on Monday that the strongest impacts as the storm moves toward U.S. landfall will likely be felt in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and along the Florida Panhandle. Up to eight inches of rain are predicted between Saturday and Sunday, with a worst-case scenario projecting as much as 14 inches.
The weather service indicated that even if a named tropical storm does not form, the approaching Gulf system is likely to spread flooding downpours across the Ohio Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, and parts of the Northeast, including Pennsylvania and New Jersey. AccuWeather anticipates the storm could disrupt travel across Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and southern New Jersey between Saturday and the following Monday.
Historically, hurricane activity in the Atlantic has seen years without a hurricane, such as 1907 and 1914. This year's unusual calm in the Atlantic has been attributed to a strong El Niño phenomenon, which typically alters global weather patterns. Tropical cyclones require warm water for fuel and low wind shear to develop. While eight cyclones have reached tropical storm status this year, strong wind shear, influenced by El Niño, has prevented them from becoming hurricanes.
