Tropical Storm Lowell has formed in the Pacific Ocean and is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane and head towards Hawaii, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced. Early prediction models indicate Lowell could make landfall in the coming days, potentially impacting the state's most populated areas.
Lowell formed Thursday afternoon with sustained winds over 45 mph, more than 1,500 miles southeast of the Hawaiian islands. Forecasts suggest the storm will strengthen into a hurricane by Sunday and track directly toward Hawaii. Spaghetti models, which show various potential storm paths, indicate multiple routes where Lowell could strike the Big Island, as well as Maui, Molokaʻi, Lanaʻi, and Oʻahu.
This potential impact comes as Hawaii continues to recover from recent storm damage. Hurricane Lala made landfall on August 15, causing destructive floods and mudslides that damaged or destroyed over 100 homes on the Big Island and resulted in at least two deaths. Tropical Storm Moke also passed near the islands on August 22. Lowell would be the third tropical cyclone to threaten Hawaii in three weeks.
AccuWeather meteorologists have warned that the Pacific hurricane season could be unusually active, increasing the risk of direct impacts on the Hawaiian islands. Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert at AccuWeather, noted in May that while Hawaii has experienced a long period without direct hurricane landfalls, complacency should be avoided. He added that some islands experienced severe flash flooding in March, indicating an elevated risk for tropical impacts this year.
The last time multiple storms affected Hawaii within a two-week span was in 2016, when Tropical Storm Madeline and Hurricane Lester passed over the state. Currently, the European forecasting model, known as the EPS Ensemble, predicts Lowell will travel west before turning north and potentially impacting the Big Island. The NHC's forecast data, extending through Wednesday, September 2, indicates Lowell will still be a hurricane at that time, with sustained winds exceeding 75 mph.
Forecasting models are subject to change as storms develop and approach land, with certainty decreasing the further into the future a prediction extends.
The increased frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Pacific is believed to be influenced by a 'Super' El Niño, which has significantly warmed sea-surface temperatures. This phenomenon creates conditions favorable for intense storm development in the Pacific by providing more fuel for cyclones and reducing vertical wind shear, which can tear storms apart. AccuWeather had previously forecast 17 to 22 named storms in the Pacific for the season, with nine to 13 projected to be hurricanes and up to eight reaching major hurricane status. To date, 14 named tropical storms or hurricanes have already occurred in the eastern and central Pacific. Hurricane Lala alone is estimated to have caused $3-5 billion in damage. For comparison, the storm's eye passed only 30 miles offshore when it impacted the state.