Tories Surge Ahead of Reform UK in New Polls, Becoming Main Opposition

The Conservative Party has regained its position as the main opposition in British politics, according to recent polling data. This shift marks a significant turnaround, as the party has closed a substantial lead previously held by Reform UK over the past five months.

An Ipsos poll indicates that following a strong performance at the Conservative Party conference, Kemi Badenoch has propelled the Tories ahead of Reform UK by three points, with 35% support compared to Reform's 32%. This is the first time the Conservatives have led Reform in the current parliamentary term. In May, Reform UK held a 28-point advantage in the same poll.

Policy initiatives championed by Badenoch, including proposals to abolish inheritance tax on family homes, create 50,000 new prison places, and a push to increase employment while reducing benefits expenditure, appear to be resonating with voters. The polling suggests these policies are influencing not only the party faithful but also a broader electorate.

Previously, in May, Labour voters had placed Reform UK 24 points ahead as the official opposition. The latest poll shows these same voters now favor the Conservatives by a 13-point margin.

The Conservative uptick coincides with a challenging period for Reform UK, which is currently facing investigations into its donations and a recent scandal involving allegations of racism and sexism.

Keiran Pedley, Ipsos director of politics, commented on the shifting dynamics, noting that "people increasingly saying it is clear what Kemi stands for, with her ratings improving over time." He contrasted this with Reform's current difficulties. "There's a sense of a battle for hearts and minds on the Right of British politics, which it very much looked like Reform had won [by May]," Pedley added. "What's changed since the local elections? Reform has had scandal after scandal whereas Kemi has looked like a steady pair of hands, and people know what she stands for."

Lord Hayward, a Conservative peer and polling expert, suggested the poll's findings could be pivotal for the party's future. He highlighted the importance of being perceived as the primary opposition in a multi-party system. However, he cautioned that the Conservatives need to sustain this momentum for an additional four to six weeks to confirm the bounce is more than temporary.

Hayward also pointed to a decline in immigration as a key issue for Reform, coupled with a dip in Nigel Farage's popularity, particularly among middle-class voters. Simultaneously, he observed the rise of Kemi Badenoch, who has managed to differentiate the current Conservative Party from the previous government's record.

Furthermore, voter confidence in Badenoch's potential to become prime minister has risen to 32%, up from 24% a year ago. Conversely, the percentage of voters who believe Farage is likely to enter Number 10 has fallen from 50% in May to 33%.

The recent polling follows three other surveys this week that placed the Conservatives in second place ahead of Reform UK. Reform voters have reportedly responded positively to Badenoch's handling of a controversy surrounding comments about who can be considered truly English.

Badenoch's keynote speech at the Conservative conference, where she likened the party to Marks & Spencer, emphasized adaptation and regaining public trust. Meanwhile, Reform UK has been marred by revelations about its candidate vetting process, with undercover investigations uncovering racist remarks and offensive language from several councillors and candidates.

Nigel Farage remains under investigation by parliamentary ethics watchdogs concerning a substantial undeclared donation. An insider within Reform UK suggested that the party's current trajectory could see its poll numbers drop to 15% by next month.

Kemi Badenoch has publicly criticized Reform's conduct, stating, "Reform voters are being let down by Reform politicians."