Tories Gain Ground in Polls After Conference, Leapfrogging Reform UK
Conservative support increases following Kemi Badenoch's tax promises, narrowing the gap with Labour.
The Conservative Party has seen a surge in support, moving ahead of Reform UK and coming within one point of Labour, according to recent YouGov polling data. This shift in voter intention is being attributed, in part, to a "conference bounce" following Conservative Party meetings in Birmingham.
The latest YouGov research indicates that the Conservatives have gained three percentage points, reaching 23 percent support. This rise has pushed Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, into third place with 21 percent, a position they have not held on the firm's voting intention tracker since 2024. Labour's support has seen a corresponding dip, dropping three points to 24 percent.
This electoral movement follows Conservative Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch's key announcement during the conference. She pledged to exempt family homes entirely from inheritance tax and proposed a £1 million allowance for couples. This move on death duties, valued at £6 billion, is intended to be funded by cuts to the welfare budget. Badenoch stated that these proposals underscore the Conservatives' commitment to home ownership, asserting that individuals who work hard and save should be rewarded by being able to pass their assets to their children or grandchildren.
An earlier Opinium poll also suggested a boost for the Tories following their conference, offering relief to strategists who had been concerned that improved personal ratings for the party leader were not translating into broader electoral gains. The YouGov poll data, while indicating a trend, also cautioned that weekly fluctuations can fall within the margin of error, making it challenging to definitively distinguish between significant shifts and statistical noise.
The apparent increase in Conservative support comes amid ongoing speculation about the possibility of a snap general election. While Labour leader Andy Burnham has denied considering an early ballot, reports suggest that Badenoch's team had been on alert during the Labour conference for potential triggers of a contest. The Conservatives have reportedly been holding election meetings since July, with a draft manifesto and campaign plans in place.
However, the current distribution of support, as indicated by the YouGov poll, would likely result in a hung Parliament, making the formation of a future government difficult to predict.