Tories Gain Ground in Latest Poll Amid 'Badenoch Bounce'

The Conservative Party has seen a surge in support, leaping ahead of the Reform party in a new poll, marking the second such indication this week that a post-conference bounce is benefiting Kemi Badenoch. The Conservatives registered 24 percent in the More in Common poll, placing them three points above Nigel Farage's party and narrowing the gap with the Labour Party.

The poll also suggests an increase in Badenoch's personal appeal following her address at the annual conference in Birmingham, where she outlined significant tax-cutting proposals. She used the event to advocate for tax reductions and also directed criticism towards Reform, questioning the viability of a right-wing coalition government.

This latest survey follows a YouGov poll released the previous day, which similarly indicated the Conservatives moving into second place. Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, attributed the "Badenoch Bounce" to two factors: rising approval ratings among right-leaning voters, with a +62 rating among 2024 Conservative voters and +18 among Reform supporters. He noted that her approval ratings with Liberal Democrats (-9) and Labour voters (-10) have also improved, reaching relatively high levels for a Conservative leader.

Following the YouGov poll, Badenoch stated that the increase was merely the "beginning" and that the public was responding positively to "common sense plans." Her recent conference speech included a notable proposal to exempt family homes from inheritance tax and to raise the allowance for couples to £1 million.

An earlier Opinium poll over the weekend also suggested a boost for the Conservatives, offering relief to strategists concerned that Badenoch's improved personal ratings were not translating into broader party support. However, the current poll results may temper speculation about a potential snap general election. While Prime Minister Andy Burnham has denied considering an early vote, Badenoch's aides reportedly remained alert during the Labour conference for such a possibility.

The Conservatives have been engaged in election preparations since July, developing a draft manifesto and a campaign schedule detailing Badenoch's planned visits and public appearances. The current polling suggests that any ensuing election would likely result in a hung Parliament, making the formation of a government highly uncertain.